Reports

Abstract Budgeting is the most important policymaking event in the country and an indicator for measuring the level of social rationality and governance quality. In fact, this document is the most prominent governance tool and the clearest evidence for displaying the rulers' approach to societal issues. Therefore, the manner of supplying and distributing credits in this area is of importance. Because this document is not merely a collection of neutral numbers and figures, but rather contains policy and executive meanings and approaches of governments, as well as the design of the future roadmap, and simply put, the quality of budget governance reflects the extent of governments' commitment to social justice in society. Hence, any neglect or carelessness in understanding the structure and logic of this policymaking field is considered a policy cognitive error, the cost of which manifests in the form of producing and reproducing inequality, selling the future with minimal returns, and generating social dissatisfaction. The findings of this study show that the budgeting system is defined within a framework of purely economic calculations and is fundamentally not designed based on social approaches. Despite having the necessary governance tools on both the revenue and expenditure sides, this budgeting structure has not been able to effectively fulfill its social regulatory role in curbing and controlling inequalities and social disorders. Therefore, this budgeting method over the past decade has not only had no commitment to poverty and inequality in society but has in many cases been a producer and reproducer of poverty and inequality. In this framework, it is essential to revive the social regulatory role of the budget for governments based on the criterion of social rationality.

Abstract One of the main functions of the budget is to finance development programs, which is explicitly stated in the country's Program and Budget Law, but in practice, the relationship between the program and the budget in Iran has not been close and clear, due to the lack of a programmatic view of the budget, the non-programmability of governments (especially from the Fourth Development Program onward), and inadequate and inflexible planning and budgeting. The simultaneous emphasis by the heads of the legislative and executive branches on commitment to implementing the Seventh Program Law can provide a suitable platform for reforming and strengthening the program-budget relationship in the country. The issuance of the 2025 budget circular indicates the government's determination to improve this relationship, and attention to the provisions related to reforming the budgeting system in the Seventh Program Law in that circular confirms this issue. In this report, by referring to a brief history of the program-budget relationship in the country and enumerating provisions from the Seventh Program Law that must be considered by the government in the 2025 budget bill either explicitly or implicitly (due to financial burdens), it is stated that the failure to provide a table of resources and expenditures and the improper calculation of the financial burdens of the program law provisions in the process of drafting the bill and approving the law is the Achilles' heel of improving the program-budget relationship. Therefore, it is appropriate for the government to address this deficiency by preparing a "Financing Program for Implementing Program Provisions" and breaking them down annually in accordance with clause (b) of Article (118) of the Seventh Program Law. The government should pursue the mobilization of new financial resources in this program and, if necessary, present it in various scenarios of domestic and foreign conditions. If the government deems the simultaneous implementation of all provisions with financial burdens impossible from a budgetary perspective and there is no possibility of mobilizing new sustainable resources for their implementation, it is essential to address the issue through agreement with parliamentary representatives instead of selectively implementing some program provisions.

Abstract Establishing educational justice and improving school quality requires prerequisites, the most important of which can be considered the creation of a comprehensive school information database to obtain accurate statistical information on the status and then ranking schools based on indicators of educational justice and quality. This comprehensive database should, like the household decile system in the economic domain, lead to the creation of a comprehensive information database that, by connecting to other databases and information systems related to various aspects of schools, provides comprehensive information on the status of schools in the country. This will create an informational, analytical, and computational foundation upon which all education policymaking and planning to expand justice will be based. The most central function of this database, namely school ranking, has been repeatedly emphasized directly and indirectly in upstream education documents; for example, Strategy 19-3 of the Fundamental Transformation Document explicitly mandates the "establishment of a school and educational institution ranking system." In the mentioned documents, multiple objectives for this matter have been stated, including "transparency of performance," "quality improvement," and "strengthening logical and scientific competition incentives among schools." Overall, it can be stated that achieving a ranking system has many advantages, including "achieving educational justice," "creating the ground for upgrading schools to the level of the ideal school in the Fundamental Transformation Document," "paving the way for realizing school-centered policy," "creating the possibility of assessing school management and staff," "creating the ground for logical and scientific competition among schools," "organizing charitable aids," "transparency of performance," and "creating the possibility of parental participation and demand." It is also noteworthy that creating a comprehensive school information database has requirements such as "determining ranking components," "considering various functional aspects of the school," and "systemic and online assessment." In the present report, while examining the necessity of creating a comprehensive school information database and school ranking based on it, the requirements as well as ambiguities and criticisms raised regarding this database and school ranking will be addressed.

Abstract One of the most important dimensions of energy security is the diversity of electricity production sources, defined as increasing the share of various energy sources in electricity production and creating balance among them to reduce concentration and dependence on one energy source. The primary energy sources for electricity production in the country include natural gas, petroleum products, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, and renewable sources. However, currently, more than 90% of the country's electricity is produced through thermal power plants, with the main fuel consumed being natural gas. The high reliance on natural gas for electricity production, coupled with imbalances in gas production and demand in the country, has led to challenges in supplying fuel to power plants. For a more precise examination of the diversity level in the country's electricity production basket, quantitative indicators of the diversity of the country's electricity production basket have been calculated and analyzed in the present report, with the results indicating an unfavorable status of diversity in the country's electricity production basket. As such, Iran ranks 131st in the world in terms of electricity production basket diversity. Therefore, forecasting approaches to develop non-thermal power plants, especially renewables, seems essential.

Abstract The Automotive Industry Organization Law was approved by the Islamic Consultative Assembly on November 17, 2021, with the aim of creating competitiveness in the automotive industry and market. The legislator, in this law and its two subsequent amendments on November 30, 2022, and June 18, 2023, sought to achieve the intended goal by adopting regulatory policies such as importing new and used cars (addressed in Report 1 of this series), reforming the institutional structure of the automotive industry, enhancing the quality and localization of produced vehicles, reducing fuel consumption, joint production with foreign automakers, and increasing the scrappage of worn-out vehicles. Overall, the general review of the Automotive Industry Organization Law shows that out of the 29 enumerated legal obligations, 15 have been "completed" and 9 have been "incompletely completed." Additionally, out of the 8 regulations and guidelines foreseen in the law, 5 have been issued, which can generally be said that the government has performed 67% in the said law, and out of the 29 enumerated legal obligations, the results of government actions regarding 7 legal obligations have been "effective" and 10 have "medium effectiveness." Therefore, the effectiveness of the actions taken is also evaluated at 39%.

Abstract Planning for the development and creation of sustainable employment in rural and nomadic areas is necessary to flourish the abundant social, cultural, and economic capacities of these areas. One of the most important features of most rural and nomadic areas is the presence of pristine natural attractions for attracting tourists. The development of rural tourism and ecotourism is essential for the development of rural and nomadic areas, which can lead to infrastructural development in these areas as well as the sale of their rural products. Another factor that plays an unparalleled role in development and employment creation in many rural and nomadic areas is handicrafts, especially handmade carpets. Handicrafts, due to their traditional and authentic nature, have deep roots in rural and nomadic culture. Therefore, one of the constant productions of villagers and nomads has been the production of handicraft products. The Law "Support for the Development and Creation of Sustainable Employment in Rural and Nomadic Areas Using Resources from the National Development Fund" was approved by the Islamic Consultative Assembly on September 10, 2017, to facilitate villagers' access to the country's official credit resources with the aim of developing and creating sustainable employment and realizing resistance economy policies. Despite the high volume of resources foreseen in the above law, the facilities under the law in terms of the number of applicants and recipients of facilities, as well as the total volume of facilities paid, indicate the incomplete realization of the goals related to facilities in tourism and handicrafts development. Because in this law, 7% of the 10% share for tourism and only 5% of the 10% share for handicrafts have been absorbed from the law's credits, and out of about 153,000 employment projects, only about 12% are related to this sector. In addition, based on the findings of the present report, the most important goal of the said law, namely the sustainability of created employment, has not been achieved. Weak coordination of banking system mechanisms with developmental approaches in rural areas, strict requirements for accepting villagers' collaterals, lack of necessary technical, financial, and economic eligibility for more than half of the projects sent by the Ministry of Cultural Heritage, Tourism, and Handicrafts to provincial technical committees, weak linkage between determined activity branches and the conditions and advantages of some provinces, ignoring the empowerment of local communities in dealing with tourists, and lack of obligation to insure employees under the law are among the most important reasons for the suboptimal performance of this law in the field of tourism and handicrafts. To address the challenges of the Law on Support for the Development and Creation of Sustainable Employment in Rural and Nomadic Areas Using Resources from the National Development Fund approved on September 10, 2017, actions such as adding a note to Article (16) of the executive regulation of the said law regarding the duties of relevant executive agencies, observing and strengthening insurance coverage for created employment, allocating facilities at conventional bank profit rates and paying bank profit subsidies to ensure full implementation of commitments, and greater flexibility in priority projects instead of exclusive emphasis on ecotourism are suggested.

Abstract Correcting and regulating information flow with a focus on increasing media authority is a vital macro-issue that requires a multifaceted approach. Finding a convincing, reliable, and practical answer to the question of "what requirements are needed to benefit from information flow to achieve trust and media authority" first requires a precise understanding of concepts such as: cognitive warfare, narrative and narration, media normative system, media consumption, and media competition. The purpose of precise understanding is that, in addition to identifying each of these sub-knowledges, adapting and aligning them with the unique characteristics of Iranian society and its revolutionary system is a necessity, neglect of which prevents us from reaching the desired goal and obtaining an effective version in solving the mentioned problem. The present writing is a report on the macro-priorities of regulating information flow and identifying damaging points in achieving media authority, resulting from monitoring Iranian society. Among the identified damages in this regard are the lack of: executive requirements in existing laws; competitive space for official and unofficial media; supervisory adjustment mechanisms; accurate and up-to-date spatial information; mandatory laws for the activities of non-Iranian media inside. In this path, studying information flow and dissemination in other countries, as well as the psychological status of three groups: elites, officials, and the general public regarding information flow and news, can indicate our distance from an acceptable state and also reveal the what and how of damages and shortcomings. Another determining factor in this matter is identifying a media normative system compatible with media mechanisms, country laws, and Islamic system values. In this report, each of these matters has been addressed as appropriate.

Abstract The importance of the adolescent generation in building the country's future, emerging challenges in the field of religion and religiosity, and the existence of reports indicating the insufficient impact of religious education programs by the Ministry of Education (as the main official authority for education), have created doubts about the efficiency of strategies and programs in this area. Therefore, evaluating policies in this domain to obtain a real picture of the current status, enumerating challenges, and accessing requirements for improving policymaking status in religious education in schools is essential. Accordingly, the present report first describes the status of students' religiosity and ongoing religious education plans, then, by examining the policies of the official education system in the said domain and measuring the gap between the current and desired status, enumerates its challenges to ultimately extract the macro-requirements for improving religious education in schools. Based on the conducted examinations, the main challenges in this arena are: "4-2-1. Failure to convert religious education goals in upstream documents into operational goals in executive regulations," "4-3. Inadequate quality and quantity of school human resources," "4-4-1. Reducing religious education to teaching lesson content and transferring information," and "4-5. Shortage of required infrastructure for cultural and educational activities and their unequal distribution in the country." Finally, strategic suggestions for improving religious education in schools were presented, the main ones being: 1. 6-1. Increasing educational program time, 2. 6-2. Increasing the authority of school principals and educational deputies in school executive regulations, 3. 6-3. Greater intervention possibility in school management, 4. 6-4. Developing performance evaluation indicators for cultural and educational activities, 5. 6-5. Continuous monitoring of students' religious education status, 6. 6-6. Redesigning the academic periods' goals document with a nurturing-oriented approach, 7. 6-7. Utilizing seminary capacities in training human resources and responding to doubts.

Abstract One of the important issues in the environmental domain is the correct quantitative estimation of the environmental status at global and national levels. In this regard, over recent years, various national and international institutions and organizations have tried to present indicators and criteria for measuring countries' environmental performance. In the present report, while examining various international methods and indicators presented over recent years for evaluating countries' environmental performance and status, an image of Iran's environmental status and position at the world and regional levels has been evaluated and compared. The examination of the country's environmental status based on international indicators in the present report is not meant to fully confirm such scoring and ranking but solely to inform and raise awareness among policymakers and decision-makers regarding various international narratives of the country's environmental status. Unfortunately, due to the lack of reliable data and lack of transparency, verifying the scoring done in international indicators using national data is not possible. In this situation, it is expected that the Environmental Protection Organization, in collaboration with executive and supervisory agencies, will continuously monitor the country's environmental status using quantitative and measurable indicators in the form of transparent annual reports. Based on the evaluation of the indicators examined in the present study, topics such as climate change, environmental health, natural capital, resource management and productivity, ecological footprint, and biocapacity can be used as measures for evaluating the country's status.

Abstract In September 2024, the production index of listed industrial companies decreased by 3.3% compared to the same month last year, and the sales index increased by 0.8%. Compared to the previous month, the production index increased by 6.1%, and the sales index decreased by 1.9%. In September 2024, the production and sales indices of the automotive and parts activity branch decreased by 7.4% and 15.6% compared to the same month last year, while compared to the previous month, the production and sales indices increased by 14.8% and 1.4%. Additionally, the production index of the chemical activity branch excluding pharmaceuticals decreased by 4.1% compared to the same month last year, the sales index increased by 14.1%, and compared to the previous month, the production and sales indices decreased by 0.2% and 2.5%. In September 2024, the monthly growth rate of the industrial activities price index of listed companies increased by 0.5%, and the point-to-point growth decreased by 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous month, reaching 22.2%. It is noteworthy that the annual average of the industrial activities price index of listed companies in September 2024 remained unchanged compared to the previous month and shows a 24.6% increase.

Abstract Having an up-to-date and reliable picture of gross domestic product developments can effectively help improve policymaking and more accurate monitoring of macroeconomics. Given the delay of statistical authorities in this area and repeated requests from Islamic Consultative Assembly representatives to address this shortcoming and provide a more timely picture of economic growth, the Parliamentary Research Center has endeavored to provide a computational infrastructure to estimate and present the country's economic growth on a monthly basis as quickly as possible. According to the latest Central Bank statistics in the spring quarter of 2024, the country's gross domestic product compared to the same quarter last year grew by 3.2% with oil and 2.5% without oil. According to the Parliamentary Research Center's estimates, the country's economic growth in July and August 2024 compared to the same period last year is estimated at 1.4% and 2.3%, and economic growth without oil at 0.6% and 2%, respectively. The results of this center's estimates show that in July 2024, compared to the same month last year, the value added of the "agriculture" sector grew by 2.8%, the "crude oil and natural gas" sector by 9%, the "industries and mines" group by 1.2%, and the "services" group by negative 0.1%. Additionally, the results of this center's estimates show that in August 2024, compared to the same month last year, the value added of the "agriculture" sector grew by 3%, the "crude oil and natural gas" sector by 5.4%, the "industries and mines" group by negative 1.6%, and the "services" group by 2.3%.

Abstract According to Article (83) of the Constitution, government buildings and properties that are national treasures cannot be transferred to others except with the approval of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, and even then only if they are not unique treasures. This article raises two important issues: first, it applies only to government properties and buildings, and second, it imposes restrictions on transfer and ownership for properties and buildings in two categories: national treasures and unique treasures. However, after the approval of this article in the country's Constitution, the instances or criteria for identifying these two categories of government properties and buildings, namely national treasures and unique treasures, have never been determined by the legislator. Considering this issue and the lack of definition of instances for Article (83) of the Constitution, some buildings and government properties have always been nominated for inclusion under this article due to their value. One of these categories is the valuable cultural and natural works or joint works of humans and nature (culturally landscape) registered in the UNESCO World Heritage List. The value of these works transcends a country's borders and is important for all humanity worldwide. Therefore, according to the mentioned definition, works registered on the World Heritage List have a unique position at the international level. This uniqueness at the international level is determined by ten criteria known as World Heritage criteria (such as human creative genius or unique sign from y...(truncated 49451 characters)... whether increasing the percentage of tax-exempt occupations from 77% to 89% at the cost of losing 48 trillion tomans in government revenue in 2026 is a priority in the country's economic policies or not. It is noteworthy that the occupation exemption in the 2024 budget law grew by 111% compared to the 2023 budget law. Additionally, if occupation owners use the point of sale terminal under Article (1) of the Point of Sale Terminals Law and the taxpayers system, their annual exemption increases to three times the annual exemption approved in the 2023 budget law.

Abstract

Abstract Urban renewal in worn-out urban textures, as one of the common urban planning strategies, aims to improve the physical, social, and economic conditions of cities. However, these projects often lead to unintended consequences such as gentrification, which can result in the displacement of low-income residents, increased socio-economic inequalities, and changes in the cultural and social fabric of neighborhoods. This report analyzes the consequences of urban renewal projects in Iran’s worn-out urban textures from the perspective of gentrification. The findings indicate that the lack of comprehensive planning, insufficient attention to the social impacts of renewal projects, and prioritizing economic interests over residents’ needs have intensified gentrification in many urban areas. The report also highlights challenges such as the lack of affordable housing, inadequate community participation, and weak regulatory frameworks. To mitigate these issues, the report proposes guidelines including strengthening participatory planning, ensuring affordable housing provision, protecting vulnerable populations, and integrating social impact assessments into urban renewal projects to achieve balanced and inclusive urban development.

Abstract The Transfer of Development Rights (TDR) approach is recognized globally as an effective tool in urban planning to guide development, preserve valuable lands, and promote sustainable urban growth. This report examines the importance and role of the TDR approach in realizing urban development plans in Iran. The study highlights that TDR can facilitate balanced urban expansion, protect historical and natural sites, and address issues related to land speculation and unplanned urban sprawl. By analyzing international experiences and their adaptability to Iran’s context, the report identifies key challenges in implementing TDR, including legal ambiguities, lack of stakeholder awareness, and insufficient institutional coordination. The proposed solutions include developing clear legal frameworks for TDR implementation, raising public and institutional awareness, establishing dedicated TDR markets, and integrating TDR into national urban planning policies to ensure its effectiveness in achieving sustainable urban development goals.

Abstract Article 30 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran emphasizes the government’s obligation to provide free education up to the secondary level and expand access to higher education based on the country’s needs and capabilities. This report examines the redistribution of government credits in Iran’s higher education system to align with this constitutional mandate. The findings indicate that the current allocation of credits is inefficient, with disparities in funding across universities, regions, and disciplines, leading to unequal access to quality education. Challenges such as budget constraints, lack of alignment with labor market needs, and inadequate support for underprivileged regions are highlighted. The report proposes a reallocation model that prioritizes need-based funding, supports disadvantaged regions, enhances vocational and technical education, and aligns higher education programs with national development goals to ensure equitable access and improve educational outcomes.

Abstract The Civil Servants Pension Fund plays a critical role in ensuring the financial security of retirees in Iran. This report evaluates the investment performance of the fund, focusing on its financial sustainability, return on investments, and alignment with long-term obligations. The analysis reveals that the fund faces challenges such as low investment returns, high dependency ratios, and exposure to economic volatilities. Factors contributing to suboptimal performance include conservative investment strategies, lack of diversification, and insufficient risk management. The report suggests reforms such as diversifying investment portfolios, adopting modern asset management practices, enhancing transparency in investment decisions, and aligning strategies with global best practices to improve the fund’s financial health and ensure its ability to meet future pension obligations.

Abstract The accumulation of outdated and conflicting laws in Iran’s insurance sector has created inefficiencies and obstacles to the sector’s development. This expert opinion examines the proposed plan to identify and list invalid laws and provisions in the insurance domain. The analysis identifies key issues, including obsolete regulations, legal ambiguities, and inconsistencies with modern insurance practices. The report emphasizes the need to streamline the legal framework to enhance the insurance sector’s efficiency, competitiveness, and alignment with international standards. Recommendations include a comprehensive review of existing laws, consultation with stakeholders, and the development of a clear roadmap for repealing or amending invalid provisions to foster a more robust and transparent insurance market in Iran.

Abstract The Law on the Formation, Duties, and Elections of Islamic Councils and Mayors’ Election is a cornerstone of local governance in Iran. This expert opinion evaluates the proposed amendments to Articles 1 to 10 of this law, focusing on enhancing the efficiency, transparency, and accountability of local councils. The analysis highlights challenges such as overlapping responsibilities, limited authority of councils, and inefficiencies in the election process. The proposed amendments aim to clarify council duties, strengthen local governance autonomy, and improve electoral procedures. Recommendations include refining the legal definitions of council responsibilities, enhancing public participation in elections, and establishing mechanisms for better oversight and accountability to ensure effective local governance.

Abstract The global automotive industry is undergoing a transformative shift toward electric vehicles (EVs), driven by technological advancements and environmental imperatives. This report examines the requirements for Iran to enter and play a significant role in the international EV value chain. The analysis highlights opportunities such as Iran’s abundant natural resources, strategic geographic position, and potential for renewable energy integration. However, challenges include technological gaps, limited infrastructure, and international sanctions. The report proposes strategies such as investing in EV manufacturing capabilities, developing charging infrastructure, fostering international partnerships, and leveraging domestic resources to position Iran as a competitive player in the global EV market.

Abstract The Social Security Organization in Iran plays a pivotal role in supporting businesses and workers through insurance and social welfare programs. This report conducts a pathology of the organization’s processes in relation to businesses, identifying inefficiencies such as bureaucratic delays, complex procedures, and lack of transparency in premium collections and benefit disbursements. The findings indicate that these issues burden businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises, and hinder economic growth. Recommendations include streamlining administrative processes, enhancing digitalization of services, improving communication with businesses, and revising policies to align with the needs of the private sector to foster a more business-friendly environment.

Abstract The Automotive Industry Organization Law, approved in 2021, aims to regulate Iran’s automotive market and enhance competitiveness through policies such as importing new and used cars. This supervisory report evaluates the implementation of Articles 1, 4, 11, 12, and 13, focusing on market regulation. The analysis reveals partial success in implementing import policies, with challenges including regulatory bottlenecks, resistance from domestic manufacturers, and economic constraints. While some progress has been made in liberalizing imports, the market remains constrained by supply shortages and high prices. Recommendations include clarifying import regulations, reducing tariffs, improving coordination among stakeholders, and balancing domestic production with import policies to achieve a competitive and stable automotive market.

Abstract Note 17 of the Budget Laws for 2022 and 2023 outlines supportive policies and deprivation removal initiatives aimed at reducing regional inequalities in Iran. This supervisory report evaluates the implementation of these provisions, focusing on their effectiveness in addressing socio-economic disparities. The findings indicate partial implementation, with achievements in funding allocation for underdeveloped regions but shortcomings in project execution, monitoring, and impact assessment. Key challenges include bureaucratic inefficiencies, lack of coordination among agencies, and inadequate targeting of deprived areas. The report recommends enhancing inter-agency coordination, improving monitoring mechanisms, prioritizing high-impact projects, and ensuring transparent allocation of resources to maximize the effectiveness of deprivation removal efforts.

Abstract Clause "S" (س)  of Article (38) of the Sixth Development Program Law mandates measures to combat dust storms in Iran, with the National Dust Storm Combat Headquarters tasked with implementation. This supervisory report evaluates the performance of the headquarters and the implementation of related provisions. The analysis shows limited progress due to insufficient funding, lack of inter-agency collaboration, and inadequate long-term strategies. While some mitigation projects have been initiated, their impact remains limited. The report recommends increasing budget allocations, strengthening coordination among relevant agencies, adopting advanced technologies for dust storm management, and developing comprehensive national strategies to effectively address this environmental challenge.

Abstract The bill to amend Article (87) of the Civil Service Management Law aims to address issues related to civil service regulations but was returned by the Guardian Council for further review. This expert opinion analyzes the proposed amendments, identifying areas of concern such as legal ambiguities, potential conflicts with existing regulations, and implementation challenges. The analysis suggests that the amendments seek to improve administrative efficiency and employee rights but require clearer definitions and alignment with constitutional principles. Recommendations include revising ambiguous clauses, ensuring compliance with higher laws, and engaging stakeholders to refine the bill for effective implementation.

Abstract Decentralized Finance (DeFi) represents a paradigm shift in financial systems, leveraging blockchain technology to provide financial services without traditional intermediaries. This report introduces the concept of DeFi, its mechanisms, and its potential impact on Iran’s financial landscape. Key components such as smart contracts, decentralized exchanges, and lending platforms are explored, alongside global trends in DeFi adoption. Challenges for Iran include regulatory uncertainties, technological infrastructure gaps, and international sanctions. The report recommends developing a regulatory framework for DeFi, investing in blockchain infrastructure, and fostering pilot projects to explore DeFi’s potential while mitigating risks associated with its adoption.

Abstract Industrial towns play a crucial role in Iran’s industrial and economic development. This report evaluates the management model of industrial towns, focusing on the Law on the Manner of Transferring Ownership and Administration of Industrial Towns. The analysis identifies inefficiencies such as bureaucratic management, lack of private sector involvement, and inadequate infrastructure support. The report highlights that the current model limits industrial towns’ competitiveness and growth potential. Recommendations include decentralizing management, encouraging private sector participation, improving infrastructure, and revising the legal framework to enhance flexibility and efficiency in the administration of industrial towns.

Abstract Tehran Neighborhood Houses (Sera-ye Mahalle) serve as community centers aimed at fostering social, cultural, and educational activities in Tehran’s neighborhoods. This report maps their current status and evaluates their performance. The findings indicate uneven distribution, varying operational quality, and limited community engagement. Challenges include insufficient funding, lack of standardized management, and weak integration with municipal planning. The report proposes increasing financial support, standardizing operational guidelines, enhancing community participation, and integrating Neighborhood Houses into broader urban development strategies to maximize their social impact.

Abstract Article (6) of the Clean Air Law mandates vehicle technical inspections to reduce air pollution in Iran. This report examines the implementation of this article, identifying challenges such as low compliance rates, outdated inspection facilities, and lack of public awareness. The analysis reveals that inefficiencies in enforcement and inadequate infrastructure hinder the article’s effectiveness. Recommendations include upgrading inspection facilities, enhancing enforcement mechanisms, increasing public awareness campaigns, and integrating digital solutions to improve compliance and contribute to cleaner air.

Abstract Municipal budgets are critical for urban development and service delivery in Iran’s major cities. This report reviews the approved municipal budgets for 2023 across major cities, analyzing revenue sources, expenditure patterns, and their alignment with urban development priorities. The findings indicate disparities in budget allocations, heavy reliance on local taxes, and insufficient investment in infrastructure and public services. Challenges include financial constraints, lack of transparency, and weak long-term planning. The report recommends diversifying revenue sources, enhancing transparency in budget reporting, and prioritizing investments in sustainable urban development.

Abstract The bill "Mutual Legal Assistance Agreement in Civil and Commercial Matters between the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Government of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan," approved by the Cabinet on August 14, 2024, was sent to the Islamic Consultative Assembly on September 18, 2024, for legislative procedures. The parliament’s Judicial and Legal Committee approved this bill by adding a note to the single article regarding compliance with Articles 77, 125, and 139 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran in implementing or amending this law. Such treaties can stimulate the country’s executive agencies and help cover potential gaps in the national legal system by benefiting from a comparative view of other countries’ legal systems. At the same time, they facilitate exchanges between the two countries and their citizens. Concluding such treaties leads to more prominent bilateral cooperation and helps in the execution and application of civil laws, hence considered useful and effective from this perspective.

Abstract Urban traffic congestion is a significant challenge in Iran’s major cities, impacting economic productivity, environmental quality, and citizens’ well-being. This report analyzes the dynamics of urban traffic challenges, identifying root causes such as rapid urbanization, inadequate public transportation, and inefficient traffic management. The analysis highlights issues like high vehicle ownership, poor infrastructure planning, and limited adoption of smart traffic systems. Recommendations include expanding public transportation networks, implementing intelligent traffic management systems, promoting non-motorized transport, and enhancing urban planning to alleviate congestion and improve urban mobility.

Abstract The bill for the Cooperation Agreement in Maritime Transportation between the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Government of the Sultanate of Oman aims to enhance bilateral maritime trade and transport collaboration. This expert opinion evaluates the bill, highlighting its potential to strengthen economic ties, improve port connectivity, and facilitate trade routes. Challenges include infrastructural limitations, regulatory harmonization, and geopolitical considerations. The report recommends ensuring compliance with international maritime standards, investing in port infrastructure, and fostering joint ventures to maximize the benefits of the agreement for both nations.

Abstract The sustainability of pension funds in Iran is under pressure due to demographic shifts, economic challenges, and structural inefficiencies. This report, the first in a series of systemic analysis and simulation reports, examines ways to enhance the sustainability of pension funds. The analysis identifies issues such as high dependency ratios, inadequate investment returns, and mismanagement of fund assets. Using systemic simulations, the report proposes strategies including actuarial reforms, diversifying investment portfolios, improving governance structures, and aligning contribution rates with long-term liabilities to ensure the financial stability of pension funds.

Abstract The commerce sector in Iran faces challenges due to outdated and conflicting laws that hinder economic efficiency and competitiveness. This expert opinion reviews the proposed plan to identify and list invalid laws and provisions in the commerce domain. The analysis highlights issues such as regulatory redundancies, legal inconsistencies, and barriers to trade facilitation. The report recommends a systematic review of existing laws, stakeholder engagement to identify obsolete provisions, and the development of a streamlined legal framework to support a dynamic and competitive commerce sector.

Abstract The cultural heritage, tourism, and handicrafts sector in Iran is constrained by outdated legal frameworks that limit its growth and development. This expert opinion evaluates the proposed plan to identify invalid laws and provisions in this domain. The analysis identifies challenges such as regulatory overlaps, lack of support for tourism infrastructure, and inadequate protection for cultural heritage. Recommendations include revising obsolete laws, promoting public-private partnerships, enhancing legal protections for cultural assets, and aligning regulations with international tourism standards to foster sector growth.

Abstract Water scarcity and mismanagement have led to increasing domestic water conflicts in Iran, threatening social stability and economic development. This report examines the formation and aggravating factors of these conflicts, identifying causes such as unequal water distribution, over-extraction of resources, and weak governance structures. The analysis highlights regional disparities, lack of integrated water management, and insufficient public awareness as key aggravators. Recommendations include implementing equitable water allocation policies, strengthening water governance frameworks, promoting sustainable usage practices, and enhancing public participation to mitigate conflicts and ensure water security.

Abstract The emergence of monkeypox as a global health concern has raised questions about its management in Iran. This report reviews the global and national status of monkeypox, assessing its epidemiology, transmission patterns, and public health implications. The analysis identifies challenges such as limited diagnostic capacity, inadequate public health infrastructure, and low awareness. Recommendations include strengthening surveillance systems, enhancing diagnostic capabilities, launching public awareness campaigns, and coordinating with international health organizations to effectively manage and prevent the spread of monkeypox in Iran.

Abstract This expert opinion evaluates the proposed amendments to Articles 11 to 20 of the Law on the Formation, Duties, and Elections of Islamic Councils and Mayors’ Election, focusing on improving local governance efficiency and accountability. The analysis identifies issues such as unclear delineations of council powers, inefficiencies in electoral processes, and limited oversight mechanisms. The proposed amendments aim to enhance council authority, streamline election procedures, and strengthen accountability. Recommendations include clarifying legal responsibilities, improving voter access, and establishing robust oversight mechanisms to ensure effective and transparent local governance.

Abstract The two-stage budgeting process introduced for the 2024 Budget Law aimed to enhance transparency and efficiency in Iran’s budgeting system. This report examines the experience of this process, analyzing its implementation, outcomes, and challenges. The findings indicate that while the two-stage approach improved parliamentary oversight and resource allocation clarity, it faced issues such as delays, inter-agency conflicts, and insufficient stakeholder engagement. The report recommends refining the two-stage process, enhancing coordination among government branches, and increasing stakeholder consultation to improve future budgeting cycles.

Abstract Understanding the public sector systems ecosystem is essential for effective governance and policymaking in Iran. This report provides a data-based mapping of the public sector, analyzing the interconnections, functions, and performance of various government entities. The analysis reveals inefficiencies such as overlapping responsibilities, lack of data integration, and weak inter-agency coordination. Recommendations include developing a unified data platform, streamlining institutional functions, and enhancing data-driven decision-making to improve the efficiency and coherence of the public sector ecosystem.

Abstract Investment security is a critical factor in Iran’s economic development. This report monitors investment security across provinces and work domains in Spring 2024, assessing factors such as regulatory stability, economic risks, and investor confidence. The findings indicate regional disparities, with some provinces facing higher risks due to bureaucratic hurdles and economic uncertainties. Recommendations include strengthening legal protections for investors, improving regional investment climates, and promoting transparent regulatory frameworks to enhance investment security nationwide.

Abstract Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) offer opportunities to enhance cross-border transaction efficiency. This report, the third in a series on CBDCs, focuses on their application in cross-border transaction settlement in Iran. The analysis explores global CBDC trends, technological requirements, and Iran’s potential to leverage CBDCs for international trade. Challenges include technological infrastructure gaps, regulatory uncertainties, and international sanctions. Recommendations include developing a CBDC pilot, aligning with international standards, and fostering partnerships with friendly nations to facilitate cross-border transactions using CBDCs.

Abstract The machine-building industry is a cornerstone of industrial development. This report analyzes the governance system functions in the machine-building industry in selected countries, drawing lessons for Iran. The study examines factors such as government policies, innovation ecosystems, and public-private partnerships. The findings highlight Iran’s challenges, including technological lag, limited R&D investment, and regulatory inefficiencies. Recommendations include fostering innovation through targeted policies, encouraging public-private collaboration, and aligning governance structures with global best practices to enhance Iran’s machine-building industry competitiveness.

Abstract The veterans’ affairs domain in Iran is governed by a complex set of laws, some of which are outdated or conflicting. This expert opinion reviews the proposed plan to identify and list invalid laws and provisions in this domain. The analysis identifies issues such as regulatory redundancies, inadequate support for veterans, and legal inconsistencies. Recommendations include a comprehensive legal review, stakeholder consultations to prioritize veterans’ needs, and the development of a modernized legal framework to ensure effective support and services for veterans.

Abstract This report examines party corruption as one of the dimensions of political corruption, its nature, and its causes, and provides solutions to prevent corrupt activities by political parties. Political parties may engage in corrupt practices to secure funding for their operations and election campaigns, control and redistribute government resources, and gain or maintain power and wealth. To finance their activities, they accept contributions from individuals and companies, often granting favors or privileges in return. Political parties also engage in vote-buying and patronage, thereby undermining the fairness of elections. In parliament, due to a lack of competition, the fear of losing power, and the presence of party discipline, political parties may misuse their legislative and oversight powers to the detriment of the public and in favor of themselves or their party. When they control government resources and their redistribution, they direct these resources toward their party, friends, or relatives. From a party policy perspective, preventing party corruption requires sufficient transparency in party structures and processes, as well as robust internal and external oversight of their activities. Additionally, rethinking party power structures, developing competitive party system infrastructures, strengthening intra-party democracy, ensuring transparency, and increasing the risks associated with corrupt activities are emphasized.

Abstract The fourth space era (Space4.0) is characterized by the integration of digital technologies, private sector involvement, and global collaboration in space exploration. This report examines the transformation trends in Space4.0 and their implications for Iran. The analysis highlights opportunities such as satellite technology development and challenges like technological gaps and international sanctions. Recommendations include investing in space infrastructure, fostering public-private partnerships, developing human capital in space technologies, and aligning national strategies with global Space4.0 trends to enhance Iran’s position in the space sector.

Abstract It seems that the main approach of the 2025 budget circular in the tax domain is to reduce tax pressure on middle classes while increasing tax revenues through smartening the tax system and reducing tax evasion. According to clause (4) of the general policies of the Seventh Development Program, the tax system transformation should be toward turning tax into the main source of funding the government's current budget. To achieve this, a one percentage point increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio is foreseen in the 2025 budget circular. The prerequisite for increasing tax revenues without pressure on taxpayers is organizing tax exemptions and reducing tax evasion through smartening the tax system, which is undoubtedly one of the most important priorities in this area: the full implementation of the Point of Sale Terminals Law and the Taxpayers System. For this purpose, the tax system needs to move from an auditor-centered approach based on taxpayers' declarations to a tax collection approach based on transparency of economic interactions and analysis of information and preparing default declarations. In the 2025 budget circular, reference is also made to "the need to replace systemic and smart mechanisms instead of detection based on tax auditors' opinions." On the other hand, to support the middle classes of society, the 2025 budget circular foresees a doubling of tax exemption on total salaries and wages and a tripling of tax exemption for occupations. Regarding the tripling of tax exemption for occupations, the policymaker must decide whether increasing the percentage of tax-exempt occupations from 77% to 89% at the cost of losing 48 trillion tomans in government revenue in 2026 is a priority in the country's economic policies or not. It is noteworthy that the occupation exemption in the 2024 budget law grew by 111% compared to the 2023 budget law. Additionally, if occupation owners use the point of sale terminal under Article (1) of the Point of Sale Terminals Law and the taxpayers system, their annual exemption increases to three times the annual exemption approved in the 2023 budget law.

Abstract Global statistics show that despite global efforts, violations of doping rules have had a sinusoidal graph over many years, indicating the complexity of combating doping. The World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) is the most important international sports institution that implements its goals as much as possible through national anti-doping organizations in countries. Combating doping at the international level requires the cooperation of all countries. Therefore, it is necessary to study the policies and legal framework for combating doping in countries that hold superior positions in sports. In this study, based on multiple indicators—sports success criterion, geographical diversity criterion, doping criterion, and having a legal framework—6 countries: China, the United States, Canada, Russia, Germany, and Australia were considered, and the policies and legal framework for combating doping in these countries were examined and analyzed. Criminalizing doping and developing a national program and framework for combating doping, the existence of an independent national organization with the main mission of combating doping and strengthening values, the existence of an anti-doping program with emphasis on national cooperation, emphasis on educational and preventive programs for athletes, developing educational and preventive programs for students are the most important common criteria extracted from this research. It is noteworthy that establishing an independent anti-doping organization and focusing on identification and conducting its tests and increasing awareness of prohibited substances and doping penalties alone cannot guarantee achieving all anti-doping goals, and it is certainly necessary to pay special attention to cultural and educational programs to strengthen sports values such as honesty, character, and ethics in sports.

Abstract The present report examines and analyzes the "Consumer Confidence Index" and its components, namely the "Current Economic Status Index" and the "Consumer Expectations Index" in the summer of 2024 in Iran. The results show that the consumer confidence index in the summer season is calculated at 142.4 units, which has increased compared to the spring season (114.7), reflecting an increase in consumers' optimism regarding macroeconomic conditions. Additionally, the current economic status index based on consumers' evaluation of the overall economy and unemployment in the past is estimated at 126.0 units, which has decreased compared to the spring season (135.4). The decrease in this index indicates that consumers have evaluated the country's macroeconomic status worse than three months ago. In this regard, the consumer expectations index, based on consumers' evaluation of the overall economy, unemployment, and purchasing power in the future, is calculated at 153.3 units, which has significantly increased compared to the spring season (100.9). Overall, the consumer confidence survey results in the summer of 2024 show that optimism regarding the country's economic status has increased in this season, which may be influenced by political developments and the advent of the new government and individuals' expectations regarding the realization of election promises.

Abstract The necessity of accountability and responsibility for holders of public positions and roles, including the people's representatives in a political system, is inevitable, as representatives are present in the center of major decision-makings as guardians of people's interests. Representatives, as part of the governing board of the political system in the legislative and supervisory arena over other branches, are undoubtedly exposed to numerous threats and damages, on which basis the law on congressional oversight of representatives' behavior was approved by the parliament. Given the emphasis of the Supreme Leader on reforming this law, it is necessary to pathology and review the said law after thirteen years since its approval. This writing examines the report of the parliament's internal regulations committee on the "Plan to Amend Some Articles of the Law on Congressional Oversight of Representatives' Behavior" with registration number 89 in the twelfth period. This committee has made amendments to the law focusing on changing the primary and appellate oversight authority, strengthening the enforcement guarantee of violations, and granting active jurisdiction to the primary board for handling violations. While confirming the general principles of the committee's report, it is suggested to amend some details in compliance with the procedures in the internal regulations to address all damages. Therefore, given the importance of this plan, two-stage consideration of this report is suggested.

Abstract The bill "Mutual Legal Assistance Agreement in Civil and Commercial Matters between the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Government of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan," approved by the Cabinet on August 14, 2024, was sent to the Islamic Consultative Assembly by the government on September 18, 2024, for legislative procedures. The parliament's Judicial and Legal Committee approved this bill by adding a note to the single article regarding compliance with Articles 77, 125, and 139 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran in implementing or amending this law. It should be noted that such treaties can stimulate the country's executive agencies and help cover potential gaps in the national legal system by benefiting from a comparative view of other countries' legal systems. At the same time, they facilitate exchanges between the two countries and their citizens. Concluding such treaties leads to more prominent bilateral cooperation and helps in the execution and application of civil laws, hence considered useful and effective from this perspective.

Abstract In recent years, inflationary waves have increased housing inequalities among socio-economic groups (homeowners, landlords, and tenants). In this regard, rental housing has become increasingly unaffordable and unstable. Many tenant households, especially low-income ones, due to the mismatch between income growth and rising rental housing costs, have become involved in forced relocation and "poverty caused by rental housing costs" or are at risk of it. Inequality, socio-income segregation, and gentrification within the country's cities have also intensified. In this regard, the government is expected, according to the duties stated in the Constitution regarding housing provision (Article 31, clause 12 of Article 3, and clause 1 of Article 43), to at least make rental housing (living in residential units belonging to real landlords) stable and affordable through regulatory welfare roles (protecting the existing welfare level) and show policy sensitivity to increasing poverty and social inequality. Accordingly, it is necessary to provide a picture of the economic, social, and psychological status of tenants and rental housing to place the necessary actions and measures on the agenda.

Abstract Regionalism and economic and commercial cooperation in the form of bilateral or multilateral agreements, especially in free trade, are considered tools for strengthening commercial relations between countries. In this regard, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Syrian Arab Republic have also tried to expand their commercial relations by approving the free trade agreement law in 2011. However, the bill for the amending annex to this agreement, approved by the Cabinet in 2024 and the parliament's Economic Committee, addresses amendments such as removing 88 exempted items, reducing customs duties to zero percent, and changing the value-added threshold for goods. Despite these amendments, the trade volume between Iran and Syria in recent years indicates insufficient use of existing capacities. In 2023, Iran's export value to Syria was only $140 million, placing the country as the sixth exporter to Syria. Additionally, despite 23 agreements between the two countries, it seems these agreements have not had a significant impact on developing commercial relations. Ultimately, it appears that the new amendments will not create tangible changes in the trade volume between the two countries, and developing commercial cooperation requires infrastructural actions and facilitating logistical processes.

Abstract Since state universities are funded from public resources, it is expected that their activities' results, particularly the results of students' theses and dissertations, will be exploited in the direction of public interests. Every year, a large number of scientific researches are conducted by graduate students, but despite the costs incurred and sometimes valuable scientific results obtained, appropriate exploitation leading to value creation is not done. Despite existing laws and regulations related to exploiting the results of theses and dissertations, there are still challenges in this field. In the present study, the current conditions and challenges of the right to exploit the results of dissertations and theses in Iran's state universities have been examined. Accordingly, in state universities, generally shared ownership between the university and creators, and in some cases university ownership or sole ownership by creators, is accepted, but despite national-level laws and regulations and university-level ones, lack of transparency in regulations in some cases, absence of independent structure regarding intellectual properties in universities, lack of awareness of the nature of intellectual property and the capacities of intellectual assets from theses and dissertations for commercial exploitation, and most importantly, lack of motivation among all parties (universities, students, and professors) for exploiting these intellectual assets, are the main identified challenges. Despite the reduction in government budgets for higher education, universities should pay special attention to this area as a capacity and main source of funding.

Abstract Organizing the management of the country's border terminals in terms of facilitating international trade and utilizing economic opportunities from Iran's membership in the Shanghai Pact, BRICS group, and Eurasian Economic Union, and ultimately more effective positioning of Iran in the changing regional economic order and turning Iran into a transit hub is important. In this report, it is shown that neglecting the root challenges of border terminals and sufficing with the solution of determining a single managing authority for border terminals from among the executive agencies stationed at the terminal not only does not lead to organizing the status of border terminals but experience has shown that this solution can lead to more conflicts among executive agencies and greater complexity of relations and activities at border terminals. The prerequisite for organizing border terminal management is reforming the border terminal policymaking structure through determining a single supra-sectoral policymaking authority that has the characteristics of 1. lack of sectoral orientation, 2. sufficient authority in the executive domain, 3. agility in policymaking to facilitate traffic from border terminals, and 4. strategic view of changes in the regional economic order. Determining the National Transit Headquarters as responsible for determining the management method of border terminals, the subject of clause (57) clause "A" of the Seventh Development Program Law, provides the grounds for this structural reform; although measures (e.g., relocating the secretariat to the presidency) should be considered for the issue of the secretariat's dependence on the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development. The effectiveness of the National Transit Headquarters is conditional on requirements and groundwork that should be on the agenda of the first sessions of the National Transit Headquarters; including providing the possibility of direct and intermediary-free communication between the National Transit Headquarters and each border terminal.

Abstract Turkey's budgeting system as a developing country has undergone many changes over the past years. To enhance the effectiveness and increase the efficiency of the public budget, performance-based budgeting was first put on the agenda. In the performance-based budgeting system, all executive agencies are required to develop strategic plans and annual operational programs based on the goals of upstream development documents so that the results and outputs of executive agencies' activities and missions are controlled and supervised according to indicators and criteria. In this regard, the operational breakdown of credits received by agencies in the budget is included by each activity unit (such as the number of research reports). After that, program-based budgeting system was raised. For this purpose, four ministries: national education, health, finance, and agriculture were selected as pilot agencies for implementing the program-based budgeting system. This system, regardless of the duties and activities of various executive agencies, seeks to achieve macro-goals of the public sector through distributing credits among government priority programs. Finally, a combination of the two mentioned methods is used in Turkey's budgeting. Also, alongside the annual budget, documents for short-term, medium-term, and long-term planning are developed.

Abstract Despite the importance of providing accurate and transparent statistics for the tourism industry, the lack of this is raised as one of the most important challenges in this domain. In other words, the quantity and quality of statistics provided by the Statistical Center of Iran, the Ministry of Cultural Heritage, Tourism, and Handicrafts, and other relevant institutions do not meet the statistical needs of the tourism sector for policymaking and decision-making in this area. Lack of integration in providing identity specifications of foreign tourists, incomplete provision of statistics and information on the number and characteristics of visitors, lack of valid survey statistics on tourists' behavior and tendencies are the most important challenges of the tourism statistical system in the country. Also, the failure to prepare and publish annual tourism satellite accounts nearly seven years after approval in the Supreme Council of Cultural Heritage and Tourism on June 13, 2017, is another challenge in this domain. Ignoring the necessity of collecting, processing, and publishing information related to tourists' expenses and neglecting the need to distinguish tourists from travelers in providing foreign passenger statistics are other issues related to the country's tourism statistics. Finally, the lack of appropriate institutional mapping and obligating relevant agencies to prepare and publish tourism-related statistics can be counted as part of the most important problems related to preparing and publishing tourism statistics. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the duties of each responsible and relevant agency in a coherent, integrated, and coordinated manner in the form of a statistical system for the tourism sector while precisely examining the statistical needs of the tourism sector. Also, by legalizing this system, while officially obligating each relevant agency, supervision can be exercised over the process of preparing, compiling, and publishing statistics and information by each of the said agencies. Therefore, the draft regulation for organizing the production and publication of specialized tourism statistics of the Islamic Republic of Iran is suggested at the end of this report.

Abstract It seems that the main approach of the 2025 budget circular in the tax domain is to reduce tax pressure on middle classes while increasing tax revenues through smartening the tax system and reducing tax evasion. According to clause (4) of the general policies of the Seventh Development Program, the tax system transformation should be toward turning tax into the main source of funding the government's current budget. To achieve this, a one percentage point increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio is foreseen in the 2025 budget circular. The prerequisite for increasing tax revenues without pressure on taxpayers is organizing tax exemptions and reducing tax evasion through smartening the tax system, which is undoubtedly one of the most important priorities in this area: the full implementation of the Point of Sale Terminals Law and the Taxpayers System. For this purpose, the tax system needs to move from an auditor-centered approach based on taxpayers' declarations to a tax collection approach based on transparency of economic interactions and analysis of information and preparing default declarations. In the 2025 budget circular, reference is also made to "the need to replace systemic and smart mechanisms instead of detection based on tax auditors' opinions." On the other hand, to support the middle classes of society, the 2025 budget circular foresees a doubling of tax exemption on total salaries and wages and a tripling of tax exemption for occupations. Regarding the tripling of tax exemption for occupations, the policymaker must decide whether increasing the percentage of tax-exempt occupations from 77% to 89% at the cost of losing 48 trillion tomans in government revenue in 2026 is a priority in the country's economic policies or not. It is noteworthy that the occupation exemption in the 2024 budget law grew by 111% compared to the 2023 budget law. Additionally, if occupation owners use the point of sale terminal under Article (1) of the Point of Sale Terminals Law and the taxpayers system, their annual exemption increases to three times the annual exemption approved in the 2023 budget law.

Abstract The Parliamentary Research Center, as the research arm of the parliament, has addressed the status of monetary policy in the first version of its periodic reports. The most important findings of the report are as follows: It appears that consumer and producer inflation has reached a hard core of about 30%, and it is predicted that, in the absence of significant events such as positive or negative external shocks, the inflation rate in the coming seasons will remain around 30-35%. The main reasons for the failure to further reduce inflation include inflationary expectations and the level of services inflation due to the lag in rent growth compared to housing prices. Given the higher level of actual production compared to potential production, pressure from energy imbalances, reduced growth in the economy’s capital stock, negligible productivity growth, and the contractionary effects of continuing the quantitative balance sheet control policy, it is predicted that the economic growth rate in 2024 and 2025 will be around 2.5%. Indicators of banking health and stability as of the end of 2023, such as a negative capital adequacy ratio of 0.2%, accumulated losses of 445 trillion tomans, the Central Bank’s claims of 585 trillion tomans from banks, and a non-performing loans ratio of 18.6%, indicate an unfavorable financial stability situation. From 2018 to September 2024, the exchange rate growth trend has been proportional to domestic and foreign inflation. Given the continuation of high inflation, proportional growth of the equilibrium exchange rate with inflation in 2024 and 2025 is predictable, which aligns with society’s expectations regarding the exchange rate trend. However, with external shocks, reduced oil exports, or intensified capital outflows, the exchange rate may increase beyond the equilibrium and long-term trend. Considering the continued exchange rate growth, the high level of below-the-line items in the banking system’s balance sheet and the likelihood of default and their transfer above the line, the high volume of government-mandated loans, the failure to reduce the share of government sector loans in total liquidity growth over the past three seasons despite the quantitative control policy, and the government’s intent to use the pioneer clause, it is predicted that liquidity growth will exceed 30%. Since 2021, various interest rates in different markets have been on an upward trend due to factors such as increased inflation and inflationary expectations, bank balance sheet controls, heightened uncertainty, increased banking network imbalances, and reduced fresh financing from that source. Since 2023, interest rates have doubled due to the lack of base money injection proportional to liquidity growth and its reduction due to the negative growth of net foreign reserves. It is essential to note that these predictions assume no political shocks, reduced oil exports due to external pressures, or exchange rate fluctuations caused by external events. If these assumptions are violated, exchange rate growth will exceed the predicted values. Based on the aforementioned considerations, the following policy recommendations are proposed: Continuation of the quantitative balance sheet control policy at approximately the figures targeted by the Central Bank, Resolution of unhealthy banks and dissolution of some severely unhealthy credit institutions, Management of interest rates in money markets through the development of open market operations, Coordination and proportionality between exchange rate growth, inflation, and interest rates in various markets, Continuation of exchange controls with adherence to two conditions: no price intervention and gradual easing of controls.