Volume & Issue: Volume 32, Issue 1, January 0 
گروه رفاه و سیاست های اجتماعی

Review of the Second Part of the 2024 General Budget Bill (5): Targeted Subsidies Resources and Expenditures

Article ID:19716

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16735.1686

Mohammad‑Mahdi Jafari, Shahabeddin Fouladi Moghaddam

Abstract The note regarding targeting in annual budget laws predicts the amount of resources derived from energy price reforms and the manner of their expenditure in the following year. A significant portion of the resources obtained from price reforms is allocated to support expenditures, which constitute the main part of the annual budget in combating poverty. Note (8) of the 2024 Budget Bill addresses the subject of subsidy targeting; based on the figures predicted in this note, it appears that the balance of targeting resources and expenditures in 2024 continues the past trend of facing a deficit. The ceiling for targeting resources in the 2024 bill is set at approximately 758.8 trillion Tomans, showing a 15% growth compared to last year and, notably, an increase of over 66% compared to its performance last year. Out of the total targeting resources, about 79% is allocated to support credits, a figure that has experienced a growth of about 23% compared to the 2023 law. The highest growth in support expenditures compared to last year’s budget law occurred in bread subsidies and pensions for supportive institutions. The credits predicted in Note (8) of the budget bill indicate that the government has over-estimated resources and under-estimated expenditures, resulting in an imbalance problem in the coming year. In row (4) of Table No. 14 of the 2024 Budget Bill, resources derived from domestic and export sales of gas by-products have been added to subsidy targeting resources, which essentially has no connection to the Targeted Subsidies Act and contradicts the first part of the notified budget provisions and the Seventh Plan approved by the Parliament floor. Furthermore, in the table submitted with the government bill—which was sent to the Parliament in a separate section based on the amendment to Article (182) of the Internal Regulations of the Parliament and must be compiled based on the notified provisions of the first part—the share of the National Development Fund from the export of petroleum products has not been accounted for. Given the unfavorable state of realizing targeting revenues and the prediction of its continuation in 2024, it appears the subsidy targeting note in 2024, like some previous years, will face a resource-to-expenditure deficit. The total legally realizable targeting resources for the coming year are estimated at about 530 trillion Tomans. On the other hand, some expenditure figures, such as the bread subsidy, are under-estimated. Additionally, the resources required for implementing the electronic welfare catalog (Kalabarg) scheme are not clearly specified in Note (8). Therefore, assuming full allocation of expenditures, the targeting income-expenditure imbalance in 2024 is predicted to be at least 230 trillion Tomans.

Reviewing the Status of Domestic Tourism from the Perspective of Accessibility for Various Social Strata and Providing a Legislative Package

Article ID:19710

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16737.1687

Abbas Nikzad, Saeed Shafi’a

Abstract By examining the statistics and figures of quantitative and qualitative indicators of domestic tourism, one can identify a serious issue in the possibility of benefiting from tourism advantages among the middle and lower deciles, as well as disabled and elderly individuals in society. Between 2011 and 2021, in terms of quantity (except during COVID-19 restriction periods), domestic tourism in Iran has been on the rise. Despite this, statistics indicate a shrinking share of travel and recreation in the expenditure basket of Iranian families. The quantity of trips has been due to factors such as the repetition of travel by affluent households or an increase in compulsory trips, and this has not led to the qualitative development of this field. One notable issue is the lack of balanced spatial and temporal distribution of domestic trips across the country, such that more than 50% of trips occur within less than 20% of the country’s provinces and mainly during Nowruz and a few dense occasion-based holidays. Furthermore, these trips are predominantly by private car (77%) and based on staying at the homes of acquaintances and relatives (76%). Examining the ratio of recreation and entertainment expenses to total costs in the consumption basket of urban households shows that over past years, recreation and entertainment expenses have faced a significant decrease, such that the share of expenses related to recreation and travel dropped from 0.71% in 2011 to 0.38% in 2021. This has caused a reduction in the shares of accommodation, transportation, souvenir shopping, and tour and excursion costs in Iranian household travel plans, representing a decline in domestic tourism quality. Additionally, the lack of documented statistics regarding the status of the elderly and disabled benefiting from tourism advantages has made a detailed review of this field impossible. Although empirical evidence indicates low accessibility for this group and a lack of supportive policies for benefiting from planned travel is evident. This situation occurs while the elderly and disabled population of the country is following an upward trend and has been deprived of high-quality and planned travel in past years. One way to reduce travel costs and benefit from discounts is through group travel or tours, yet the general inclination toward this type of travel does not show a growing trend. Furthermore, the status of the number of household trips in various provinces indicates a lack of policymaking based on the land use planning (Amayesh) model. Complementary tourism destinations in the vicinity of high-population areas have not been strengthened to lead to a reduction in distance and an increase in access opportunities. This issue can also be considered alongside the distribution and organization of holidays for managing the timing of trips as a policy tool. Reviewing the performance of existing policies shows that due to the lack of executive guarantees, ambiguity in the text of laws, lack of funding in annual budgets, and inter-sectoral incoordination, existing legal capacities for developing accessible tourism have been unsuccessful, and it is necessary to undertake legislative and supervisory actions in response. Therefore, it is proposed that the executive guarantee and the possibility of supervising the Tourism Strategic Document be provided by the Supreme Council of Heritage, Tourism, and Handicrafts. Furthermore, Article (3) and its notes from Chapter Two of the Law on the Protection of the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, approved in 2019, should be amended with an approach toward travel accessibility and the utilization of tourism infrastructure and facilities by disabled persons. It is worth noting that to strengthen domestic tourism and increase discretionary trips with an emphasis on making travel accessible to all strata of society, a draft should be presented centered on providing low-interest loans, prioritizing the development of roadside tourism infrastructure, preparing an atlas and specialized tourism program with an emphasis on indigenous and local capacities, improving public transportation infrastructure, and managing holidays in the country.

Pathology and Provision of Solutions for Enhancing “Policy Learning” Mechanisms in Governance and Legislation

Article ID:19707

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16738.1688

Seyedeh Hoda Shamsi

Abstract Human complexities and the speed of social transformations have made learning a necessity for existing issues in the field of governance. Accordingly, the performance of governments is based on permanent processes of “feedback” and “guidance.” According to Article (58) of the Constitution, the Islamic Consultative Assembly is composed of elected representatives of the people and is defined as the main authority for legislation in the country as one of the three branches of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Given that the legislative process in the country is based on a continuous cycle, we need an intelligent learning system in the Islamic Consultative Assembly to enhance legislative processes. The learning process in the Islamic Consultative Assembly can be discussed in two ways: endogenous and exogenous. In the endogenous approach, the focus is on enhancing policy learning through the internal capacities of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, including the knowledge management system, studying previous successful or unsuccessful experiences, improving the learning skills of representatives, etc. In the exogenous approach, the focus is on utilizing the experiences of other countries and societies with an emphasis on the concept of open innovation. Learning is mostly a reaction to exogenous change in the policymaking and legislative environment, and the learning process can also be proposed in a two-stage logic; meaning that the Islamic Consultative Assembly should not merely suffice with learning from previous experiences and existing lessons learned, but must constantly redesign its internal processes based on an intelligent cognitive system to enhance learning capabilities within itself, so that it transforms into a “learning organization.”

Considerations Regarding Education Age and the Efficiency of Higher Education Credits (Necessity of Attention to Article 30 of the Constitution)

Article ID:19711

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16740.1689

Hadi Yousefi

Abstract The higher education system, like other institutions, is evaluable from the perspective of internal and external efficiency. External efficiency deals with the performance of the higher education system in relation to other economic, industrial, and cultural systems of society, while internal efficiency is measured based on the degree of achievement of higher education system goals relative to the resources consumed (costs). Topics such as retention rates, unit repetition, academic failure, the quality and skills of graduates, and dropping out are discussed in connection with internal efficiency. Accordingly, one factor affecting the efficiency of higher education is “education age,” which has significant impacts on the external efficiency of higher education. Examining this importance becomes more critical when discussing the government financing of higher education. This is because the government, in return for spending in the higher education sector, expects a product and output with a specific quality to be obtained within a standard and specified time and to be utilized for an appropriate duration. In other words, the total benefits derived from the product over time should be at least equal to or greater than the total cost spent to achieve it. In this regard, the age variable is important as a major factor in human resource productivity in any organization. Hence, the current study first examines the status of the higher education system from the perspective of the number of students at unconventional ages (Bachelor’s degree 30 years and older, Master’s degree 40 years and older, and Ph.D. 50 years and older) and then analyzes the costs imposed on the government by the education of this group of students in public sub-systems (especially daily university courses). Proposals such as authorizing the boards of trustees of universities and higher education and research institutes to determine tuition rates and receive them from students at unconventional ages in the form of loans, as well as authorizing the government to support this category of students for education in low-demand and required fields of the country, have been presented.

Analysis and Pathology of the Bill for Protection of Intellectual Property (Literary and Artistic) (Economic Rights, Moral Rights, Reproduction and Translation of Works, Computer Software, Publishing Contracts, Customs Actions, and Related Sections)

Article ID:19712

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16741.1690

Mohammad Shakuri Garakani

Abstract The subject of amending and updating laws in the field of literary and artistic property and drafting a comprehensive law in this regard has been of interest to the government and Parliament for years. During the 2000s, the government began drafting the Bill for Protection of Literary and Artistic Property, and after several years of review, the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance drafted the said bill, which was submitted to the Islamic Consultative Assembly for the first time in 2014 after approval by the Cabinet of Ministers. After the end of the 9th and 10th terms of Parliament, the aforementioned bill was also announced as received in the current Parliament; however, given the relatively long time passed since the drafting of the bill and the extensive developments and progress of modern technologies in recent years, updating and applying amendments to the text of the bill to harmonize it with tangible cultural and scientific developments was evident. Therefore, the government withdrew it from the Parliament in order to complete and amend the bill. This report was concluded by choosing case study and library research methods with the aim of conducting applied research, and based on it, it was determined that the bill suffers from significant defects and flaws and requires more detailed expert work. Among these, the bill is flawed in some parts such as the permit for translation of works and has serious deficiencies in the section on challenges related to intellectual property in the field of computer software and modern technologies such as cryptocurrencies, digital currencies, artificial intelligence, Web 3, Metaverse, Blockchain, smart contracts, social networks, and platforms, and the regulations related to them must be completed.

Legal Conceptualization of Government Debts and Obligations

Article ID:19706

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16742.1691

Mohammad Barzegar Khosravi, Amirhossein Bamati Tousi

Abstract One of the aspects leading to improved governance is the correct understanding of government obligations and debts for their management. This is because this matter is among the most important dimensions of economic policymaking for creating and maintaining stability. In Clause (3) of the general policies of the Seventh Plan, “identifying and clarifying the government’s public debts and obligations and managing and settling debts” is considered a means of reforming the government’s budget structure. Strengthening mechanisms that lead to the management of government debts and obligations provides a suitable platform for economic growth and development. Governments must ensure the optimal management of their financial resources. The funds required by the agencies using the budget must be provided on time, and the cost of government borrowing must be reduced to a minimum. Thus, the correct management of financial assets and liabilities is a necessity. Due to the importance of this subject, this research-using a qualitative descriptive-analytical method and examining upstream documents and relevant laws and regulations—answers the question: from a legal perspective and in Clause Three of the general policies of the Seventh Plan, firstly, what do the terms “obligation,” “government,” and “debt” mean, and secondly, what distinction exists between government obligations and debts? In response, it must be said: despite the lack of clear and consistent legal precedents in this matter, based on legal literature, “obligation” can be used in two general and specific senses. General obligation includes all duties (whether financial or non-financial) of the government; while obligation in its specific sense means the financial duty or responsibility of the government. “Government” means the state and political regime (the governing powers consisting of the three branches). “Debt” is also a financial duty of the government whose requirement arises from the explicit order of the law; but obligation in the specific sense is a financial duty of the government that, in addition to an explicit legal order, can arise from a compelling expediency and be based on the government’s discretionary authority. However, the authors emphasize the necessity of providing a precise and consistent framework for a legal definition of debt, government, and obligation. The only legal definition of the term obligation (the subject of Article (19) of the Public Audit Law) is merely limited to that law, and considering the numerous definitions of the term obligation in legal doctrine, it is necessary for the legislator to clearly determine their definition of these terms in accordance with the subject of Clause (3) of the general policies of the Seventh Plan.

A Review of Governance Ranking and Evaluation Centers and Systems in the World and Recommendations for Monitoring and Tracking the Governance Status in Iran

Article ID:19709

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16743.1692

Heidar Najafi Rastaqi

Abstract One of the challenges that can be raised in the country’s governance system is addressing the question: what are fundamentally the coordinates of governance in the country and how should the status of governance in the country be monitored and evaluated? In fact, in governance and developmental systems worldwide, entities known as governance ranking, evaluation, and excellence centers assess the status of governments and regimes and continuously monitor the state of governance. Based on creating a competitive environment, they pave the way for the continuous movement of societies and governments from the current situation to the desired situation. Accordingly, addressing the subject of governance at the macro level and creating a governance monitoring and evaluation system in the country is highly significant, and the Islamic Consultative Assembly can play an effective role in the activism of the country’s governance space in this arena. In this report, to understand the international coordinates of governance, global governance evaluation and ranking indicators including the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), Berggruen Governance Index, Center for Excellence in Governance, Ethics, and Transparency (CEGET) index, European Label of Governance Excellence (ELoGE), Digital Government Ranking, World Competitiveness Ranking, the global index of compliance and the concept of governance readiness, Sustainable Governance Transparency Index (SGTI), the governance dimension of the Legatum Prosperity Index, Fragile States Index (FSI), Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG), Future of Government Singapore (FMG), Arab Governance Index, Sustainable Governance Indicators (SGI), World Governance Assessment (WGA), Chandler Good Government Index (CGGI), Local Governance Performance Index (LGPI), Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index (GSCI), Global Sustainable Development Index, Quality of Life Index (QLI), Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), Human Development Index (HDI), the governance dimension in the Global Innovation Index (GII), and the World Justice Project (WJP) have been examined. Based on the analysis of these international ranking systems and centers, the proposed macro axes for governance evaluation and ranking, including “Resilience and Non-fragility,” “Participation, Accountability, and Responsibility,” “Intelligence,” “Effectiveness and Efficiency,” “Innovation, Attractiveness, and International Influence,” “Justice-orientation,” “Foresight and Long-term Orientation,” and “Public Welfare, Human Development, and Social Services,” have been extracted.

Behavioral Policymaking Requirements within the Framework of Examining Processes and Outputs of Behavioral Insight Institutions; Recommendations for the Islamic Consultative Assembly

Article ID:19705

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16744.1693

Mahsa Salsabil, Fahimeh Mohammadi Harouni

Abstract The core of legislation and public policy design lies in sound and efficient decisions, and influencing the behavior of human beings and societies is one of the most important areas of work for governors and policymakers. Until a few decades ago, the basis for legislation and the design of policy interventions was “Rational Man,” based on which punitive and incentive tools were the most important instruments for influence in society. However, in recent years, the entry of behavioral sciences into the realm of legislation and policymaking has faced this field with serious transformations, providing a more comprehensive understanding of the behavior of human beings and human societies. In recent years, behavioral insight institutions have been established in numerous countries to enhance the productivity of legislation and law enforcement, achieving very good results. Familiarity with the work process of these institutions can help utilize behavioral science knowledge in the legislative system of the Islamic Republic of Iran—headed by the Islamic Consultative Assembly—and improve the productivity of decision-making in this institution; as many laws passed in the Islamic Consultative Assembly focus on influencing and changing the behavior of the general public. One of the most important realms in which the Islamic Consultative Assembly, as national actors and agents, exerts influence is the field of legislation in the country. In the process of drafting laws, it is necessary to utilize governance and policymaking mechanisms and tools. One of the approaches that has received attention in the field of policymaking in recent years is approaches based on behavioral and cognitive insights. Accordingly, this research first examines the work process in behavioral insight institutions and presents process frameworks developed by various behavioral insight institutions, then introduces the tools used in the process of behavioral insight institutions and specifies their position in each stage of the process. The work process in a behavioral insight institution must heed principles and values, which are explained in the next section. On the other hand, since behavioral projects deal with human beings, standards and ethical principles are considered in the work process. The next section of the research addresses this issue and introduces the developed framework in this field. Also, examining global projects conducted at the governance and policymaking levels using behavioral insights can tangibly present the impact of this approach to the audience. Therefore, in the next section, five global behavioral policymaking projects are described step-by-step, and finally, suggestions in three areas of legislation, implementation of laws, and evaluation of laws regarding the utilization of behavioral insights are presented.

The Obligation to Repatriate Export Earnings; Considerations and Challenges

Article ID:19708

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16745.1694

Mehdi Darabi

Abstract After the currency crisis of 2018, currency controls were imposed to provide an additional tool for controlling the currency market. One of the most important instances of these currency controls is the obligation to repatriate export earnings in determined methods and at the specified time and amount. The issue of currency repatriation has always been among the fundamental and raised issues in the field of currency-trade policy as well as for exporters. Apart from the issue of increasing trade frictions, which is inherent in the application of surrender requirements (Peyman-separi), the most important problem facing the correct implementation of currency repatriation and its violations is directive-price intervention. Since currency controls are a type of quantitative intervention, the application of a directive exchange rate as a price intervention has led to the inefficiency of currency controls and surrender requirements. As long as the policy of applying directive exchange rates continues in official markets, currency repatriation will be entangled with various issues and inefficiencies. Another aspect of the story is that the Central Bank’s price intervention in the currency market has led to violations and corruption by exporters, and factors such as the lack of an official currency payment system and reliance on intermediaries (Trustees), various trade exceptions, the possibility of using disposable business cards, and under-invoicing and mis-invoicing at customs have also provided the possibility for this issue. Therefore, the Central Bank’s price intervention is in contradiction with Clause (19) of the General Policies of the Resistance Economy.

Expert Opinion on: “Bill for Amendment of Article 104 of the Islamic Penal Code”

Article ID:19714

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16746.1695

Seyyed Meisam Azimi, Sakineh Khanali Pour Vajargah

Abstract Article 11 of the Law on Reduction of Discretionary Imprisonment Sentences, by amending Article 104 of the 2013 Islamic Penal Code and adding a note to it, has created two major changes: first, it has expanded the scope of compoundable crimes, and second, it has halved their imprisonment sentence provided they are in grades four to eight. Among the most challenging and important crimes that were previously non-compoundable and are now compoundable according to the Law on Reduction of Discretionary Imprisonment Sentences, one can mention theft in its four instances, namely pickpocketing (Article 657), theft with one of the special conditions (Article 656), simple theft (Article 661), and robbery lacking the title of theft (665), as well as the commencement of and complicity in these thefts. However, expanding the scope of compoundable crimes to include offenses where the dangerousness of the offender and the impact of the committed crime on public order and the necessity of effective defense by society against it is self-evident, can have negative effects on the criminal justice system and reduce its power to control criminals. Just as the rate of committing the four types of theft has increased since the passage of the Law on Reduction of Discretionary Imprisonment Sentences in 2020. Especially since the duty of law enforcement officers when encountering the flagrant commission of these crimes is unclear due to the verification of some conditions for it being compoundable or non-compoundable. In the bill to amend Article 104 of the Islamic Penal Code, the designers, considering these challenges, intend to remove the four types of theft from the text of Article 104 so that the crime of theft becomes non-compoundable. This amendment is desirable in that it causes no need for a victim’s complaint to prosecute this criminal behavior, and the officer must start prosecution upon encountering this crime; this has been approved in the commission in the same way and is confirmed. However, the removal of the crimes of fraud and transfer of another person’s property has also been approved, which is not confirmed. Therefore, its approval with the observance of the aforementioned considerations is proposed.

Corporate Capital Increase; Types, Functions, and Policy Recommendations (with Emphasis on Listed Companies)

Article ID:19702

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16747.1696

Salavatiyan Mohammadamin, Vala Sanizadeh

Abstract Every enterprise needs financial resources to create, continue, and expand its activities. These resources can be attracted as capital from the company’s shareholders or from lenders under the liability heading. Choosing how to finance the enterprise and the optimal capital structure are key decisions made by company managers. This report, after explaining the company’s capital structure—which determines the ratio of capital and debt the company uses to mobilize financial resources—addresses the types of capital increase for companies. For this purpose, based on legal foundations, methods of capital increase are explained in detail. Each of the types of capital increases has its corresponding financial, economic, and regulatory implications. Specifically, increasing capital from stock premiums and cash contributions of shareholders leads to the inflow of new financial resources to the company, which can be used for its financing. Financing the company and injecting liquidity into it, facilitating financing through financial markets, and restructuring the company’s financial structure are among the most important functions of corporate capital increase. Capital increase begins with the decision of the company’s board of directors and finally ends with the registration of the capital increase at the corporate registration authority. However, the path of capital increase for companies is a challenging one; these challenges have been examined at two levels: general challenges related to capital increase and specific challenges related to each of the capital increase methods. Corporate governance implications arising from capital increase, the many formalities and time-consuming process of corporate capital increase, the company’s maximum distribution (division) of profits derived from operations, and the valuation of assets subject to the company’s capital increase are among the challenges and obstacles mentioned in the report. Finally, solutions and policy recommendations are provided to facilitate the capital increase process and increase its functions, the most important of which are: legalizing and formalizing informal real estate documents (which, although passed by Parliament, has not yet been confirmed by the Expediency Discernment Council), emphasizing the absorption of financial resources (inflow of new liquidity into the company) in capital increases, and accelerating the executive processes of corporate capital increase with an emphasis on using new technologies, and education and culture-building regarding capital increase are among the solutions and policy recommendations of the current report.

Analysis of Bribery in the Administrative System and Strategies for its Prevention

Article ID:19701

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16748.1697

Hossein Jamour, Mohammad Abdolhosseinzadeh

Abstract The phenomenon of bribery in the administrative system is among the intentional crimes that lead to the loss of people’s trust and confidence in the system, the destruction of the ground for healthy competition, and the corruption of executive apparatus employees. Despite special attention to the crime of bribery in the country’s legal system documents, as well as the existence of numerous supervisory and inspection institutions within and outside executive apparatuses, unfortunately, in the field of combating the crime of bribery in executive apparatuses, there is a large distance from the desired point. The reason for this is that in the current situation for combating bribery in the administrative system, the focus is mainly on the discovery of bribery, not its prevention. Bearing this important policy point in mind, this study attempts, after analyzing the current situation in the field of combating bribery in the administrative system and examining tools for countering bribery in international laws and regulations, to propose a model based on three principles: “improving supervision,” “increasing transparency,” and “preventing bribery” to combat bribery in the country’s administrative system and executive apparatuses. The dimensions and main axes of this model include reforming the salary and wage payment system for employees, reforming the structure of the administrative system, amending laws and regulations, education and culture-building, and smartening supervision. At the end, policy and legislative proposals for amending Articles (91 and 92) of the Law on Management of Civil Services and the “Regulation on Prevention and Combating Bribery in Executive Apparatuses” are presented.

Review and Analysis of Macro Indicators of the Water Sector in the Third Quarter of 2023-2024 (Quarterly Report 3)

Article ID:19700

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16749.1698

Morad Asadi, Narges Alsadat Abdolmanafijahrumi

Abstract In this report, the most important indicators of the water sector in the third quarter of the year 2023-2024 have been examined, and the macro status of this sector has been described on various topics. In this regard, using important water and meteorological indicators in the first quarter of the 2023-2024 water year, the status of precipitation, temperature, drought, and its effects in different regions of the country and transboundary and shared basins have been analyzed. Also, the conditions of the country’s surface water resources in the third quarter of the current year are presented, and its role in the macro management of the country’s water sector and its effects in different regions have been discussed. Furthermore, while addressing the most important events in the country’s water sector in the third quarter of the current year, the credits allocated to the water sector have also been examined, so that while raising awareness about the status of this sector during the autumn of the current year, a general overview of the conditions of funding and also the prioritization of plans and projects under execution can be presented.

An Analysis of Social Dimensions of Informal Settlement (Slum) Policies in Development Plans; A Conceptual Framework

Article ID:19697

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16750.1699

Morteza Ganji

Abstract Despite all the planning and measures taken in recent years, the population and area of informal settlements in the country have increased. Although this situation is multidimensional and complex and stems from factors at various levels, part of it is related to the qualitative content of the policies and programs in question. In this regard, one of the substantive critiques of documents and policies in the field of informal settlements has been the dominance of the physical approach and the neglect of the social dimensions of this phenomenon, and part of this situation stems from the ambiguity in the definition of the “social matter” and its dimensions and components. In this same vein, this report attempts, while presenting a conceptual and operational framework regarding what the social matter is, to reread and evaluate the policies in the field of informal settlements in the First to Sixth Development Plans on this basis. The findings of this report, based on the theory and approach of social quality, show that unlike the economic approach that defines humans based on an individualistic-utilitarian orientation, the social approach considers humans as social beings whose sociality is the product of interaction and back-and-forth between individual self-realization processes and processes that lead to the formation of collective identities. Accordingly, sociality is directed toward the existence of interpersonal relationships and is considered the consequence of the production and reproduction of relationships between members of society. Rereading policies in the field of informal settlement based on this conceptual framework indicates an imbalance in attention to the components of the social matter and the neglect of key components of the social sphere in these policies.

گروه رفاه و سیاست های اجتماعی

Analysis of the Second Part of the 2024 General Budget Bill (1): An Analysis of Budget Expenditures (First Edition)

Article ID:19713

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16739.1700

Farid Kazemi

Abstract According to the changes in the Parliament’s internal regulations, Articles 180 and 182, the submission of the budget bill to the Parliament became two-stage. In the first part of the 2024 budget bill, the budget provisions and macro figures were submitted to the Parliament in December 2023, and after review, approval, and notification, the second part of the budget bill, consisting of detailed tables, has now been sent to the Parliament. In this report, the second part of the 2024 budget bill has been examined, and the important positive and negative points of the bill have been presented. One of the important points of the bill is attention to performance measurement for executive agencies as a prelude to moving toward performance-based budgeting, but examining the way targets are set for evaluating the performance of executive agencies and comparing it with successful world models in the field of program-based budgeting shows that the bill has not been successful in this regard. One of the noteworthy points of the present bill is the absence of some important tables, including expenditure chapters and capital asset acquisition (Tables 2 and 3), and the affairs-expenditure chapters table (Table 6), which has led to an incomplete picture of the budget. In the absence of such important breakdowns, it is not possible to provide an accurate analysis of the status of budget expenditures in terms of the objectives of government spending (affairs-chapters) and the types of government spending (expenditure chapters).

Analysis and Examination of the Challenges in the Field of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration

Article ID:19695

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16751.1701

Mohammadi Fard Mohammad Hesam

Abstract Trade facilitation can be beneficial for all countries, whether exporters or importers, and increase their access to production inputs and their participation in global value chains. In this regard, reducing the time and cost of customs procedures plays an effective role in trade facilitation and improving business indicators; therefore, identifying and removing challenges in the customs field is of high importance. In this report, some of the most important customs challenges such as the multiplicity of customs offices, multiplicity of procedures, the method of valuation and tariff determination, integrated border management, system deployment, delays in issuing permits, goods smuggling, and … have been examined. However, the transformation of customs in different countries has generally been considered as a factor prone to the economic and commercial reforms of countries, and with the adoption of new trade policies, the customs of that country, as one of the main stakeholders in the trade sector, has needed transformation in line with achieving the objectives of the new policies; studies show that the transformation of customs in countries such as China and Turkey has coincided with the economic reforms of those countries. Therefore, one of the essential prerequisites for removing customs challenges will be the drafting of a comprehensive industrial and trade policy document for the country.

Evaluation of the Implementation of Article (37) of the Law on Support of the Family and the Youthful Population Growth: Development of the Culture of Mediation in Spouse Selection

Article ID:19694

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16752.1702

Atefeh Rahmani, Fatemeh Rahmanipour

Abstract In Article (37) of the Law on Support of the Family and the Youthful Population Growth, the legislator has taken into account the importance of facilitating marriage for young people, with a focus on spouse selection, in order to form a stable family based on legal and religious principles through cultural institutions, mosques, clerics, and other popular capacities, and with emphasis on the centrality and participation of families. This intervention is in line with supporting the family institution and fulfilling its inherent mission in marrying young people, as well as helping to rejuvenate the population through facilitating and accelerating the marriage of young people. The regulations and executive instructions for the above article, as well as the processes for implementing the legal duty, were approved about 7 months after the approval of the law; however, given the lack of executive precedent in this area and the popular nature of the assigned duty, the executive instruction of this article was reviewed during the implementation process and brought about revisions and changes. Reviewing the mechanisms defined in the implementation of the law and the execution process of spouse-selection centers shows that the non-connection of spouse-selection centers to the Civil Registration Organization for inquiry into marital status and single status of individuals, the multiplicity of authorities issuing permits for spouse-selection centers, the issuance of permits for spouse-selection centers under the National Business Licensing Portal as a business category, the lack of attention by licensed centers and the supervisory body to the cultural dimensions of the marriage issue and the changes in spouse-selection patterns in society, the weakness of the general and specialized conditions considered for the license applicant in terms of education and work experience in this field, and the lack of synergy among the bodies obligated under the said law in culturalizing the facilitation of young people’s marriage are among the most important challenges in implementing the above article. Revising the executive instruction of the said article based on the non-commercial nature of spouse-selection centers, obligating the National Civil Registration Organization to cooperate with the Islamic Advertising Organization in responding to inquiries regarding individuals’ marital status, continuously monitoring the status of marriage and spouse-selection patterns and placing the results of research on the agenda of centers, drafting ranking criteria for centers in order to categorize various types of spiritual and material support for centers, considering tax discounts commensurate with the quantity and quality of center activities, defining indicators for monitoring center performance, including the number of marriages relative to applicants, the frequency of divorces of couples introduced by centers in the first five years of life, the degree of success of centers in marrying special groups including people who are seeking to find a suitable spouse at older ages, and … are among the corrective proposals aimed at reforming the implementation process and increasing the effectiveness of the legal article.

Corruption in the Cyber Data Supply Chain

Article ID:19722

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16754.1703

Seyed‑Ali Mohsenian, Morteza Ghasemzadeh Iraqi

Abstract Corruption in the country’s data supply chain is recognized as an emerging phenomenon. This phenomenon includes cases such as access, collection, storage, processing, disclosure, transfer, granting access to databases, data destruction, and, in general, the misuse or unlawful use of data to obtain personal or group benefits. Data corruption can occur in various fields including scientific, economic, political, cultural, environmental, and health domains, and can have serious effects on policy, economy, public opinion, and even the country’s infrastructure. Therefore, given the increasing role and importance of data as the main source of flourishing the digital economy in the country, identifying bottlenecks to combat data corruption has become necessary, and consequently, in combating the phenomenon of data corruption, designing appropriate legal, supervisory, and executive mechanisms has become more important than ever. In this report, an attempt has been made to examine the various dimensions of corruption in the country’s data, identify global experiences and the grounds for its formation, and ultimately provide legislative, policy, and executive proposals to prevent the emergence of corruption in the country’s data supply chain.

Monitoring the Real Sector of the Iranian Economy in Esfand 1402: Industry and Mining

Article ID:19719

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16755.1704

Aliyeh Nazemi, Alireza Azarbaijani

Abstract In Esfand 1402, the production and sales indices of listed industrial companies experienced decreases of 0.7% and 1%, respectively, compared to the same month of the previous year; also, compared to the previous month, the production index decreased by 2.8% and the sales index increased by 6.9%; annual performance also indicates that in 1402 compared to 1401, the production and sales indices of listed industrial companies experienced growth of 0.4% and a decrease of 1.2%, respectively. In Esfand 1402, compared to the same month of the previous year, the production and sales indices of the automotive and parts activity line decreased by 4.7% and 3.4%, respectively, and compared to the previous month, the production index decreased by 8.6% and the sales index increased by 4.1%. Also, the production index of the chemical activity line excluding pharmaceuticals compared to the same month of the previous year decreased by 2%, the sales index increased by 7.8%, and compared to the previous month, the production index decreased by 6.8% and the sales index increased by 5.7%. In Esfand 1402, the monthly growth rate of prices of listed industrial activities increased by 1.8%, and the year-on-year growth, with a decrease of 5.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, reached 18.1%. It should be noted that the annual average price index in Esfand 1402 changed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month and shows an increase of 20.5%.

Electrification Project of the Garmsar–Incheh Borun Railway Line: Review of Views, Considerations, and Challenges; Scenarios and Forward-Looking Solutions

Article ID:19715

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16757.1705

Yaser Hatamzadeh

Abstract The contract for the electrification project of the Incheh Borun–Garmsar railway line between Iran and Russia (with financing in the form of a Russian export loan to Iran), after being concluded in 2017, has so far not become effective and operational, and has various technical, economic, international, and strategic dimensions. The Islamic Republic of Iran Railways Company, by raising technical objections, considers the project to be unhelpful and has proposed alternative options. Based on the results of this research, the technical objections are not sufficient to reject the contract. Of course, the objection that the amount of the contract is overestimated relative to the technical contribution of the project (and not the strategic and geopolitical contribution of the project) is confirmed. The proposal of conditions such as building a new variant to remain on the Incheh Borun–Garmsar route involves considerations such as doubts about the optimality and economic justification of the selected variant, lack of design and technical details, and a long implementation period. The second option (namely, electrification of the Bafq–Bandar Abbas railway line) is good to pursue, but it should not from the outset be followed with the condition of replacing the Garmsar–Incheh Borun project loan and eliminating this project. Overall, the contract for the electrification project of the Incheh Borun–Garmsar railway line has so far not been reviewed comprehensively and with consideration of all dimensions, including the need for a strategic view toward the eastern Caspian; attention to reducing the risk of attracting international cargo; technical issues and the proportionality of costs with contract details; attention to changes in international and geopolitical conditions and Iran–Russia relations, especially after the Ukraine war; and the prominent role of the time factor, and it still remains undecided and unresolved. The present report, by examining various dimensions and different viewpoints, proposes making some amendments to the current contract and implementing the electrification project of the Garmsar–Incheh Borun railway line.

Policy Research Monthly Review of Esfand 1402

Article ID:19691

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16753.1706

All Experts of the Center

Abstract The valuable effect of the policy research review is, in fact, a summary of the executive summaries of the reports of the Islamic Parliament Research Center. The executive summary explains the main points of a research product and helps the audience, in a short time, understand the depth of the points mentioned and the essence of the research, without having to read all of its content. This is generally of interest to senior managers, researchers, policymakers, and professors in various scientific fields who are looking for valuable content in a short time. In fact, the executive summary introduces the research strategy, which plays a very effective role in directing the responsible officials. For this reason, the Islamic Parliament Research Center, as the only research arm of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, with the motivation of making the representatives and respected officials more targeted and maximally informed about the announced bills and proposals and the country’s key issues, has prepared a volume titled the Policy Research Review. This work contains two domains of information: first, regarding the bills and proposals on the agenda of the Parliament’s plenary session or specialized commissions, while mentioning the title of the bill or proposal, it addresses in three separate sections the main issue, strengths and weaknesses, and finally the Center’s recommendations. In the second section, in reviewing reports prepared in the form of legislative and supervisory reports (other than bills or proposals), while mentioning the title of the target report, it addresses in three sections, separately and purposefully, the problem statement, key findings, and finally legislative, supervisory, or policy recommendations. In conclusion, it should be added that given the mission of the “Policy Research Review,” namely rapid access to the summary and policy foundation of the report, a matrix code (or two-dimensional barcode) has been created for all reports so that, with QR scanners, it can be read anywhere via a camera-equipped mobile phone, in order to meet the needs of you esteemed scholars. It is hoped that this work, in the shade of divine grace and the far-sighted guidance of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, will play an effective role in advancing the goals of the sacred Islamic Republic of Iran.

Review of the Provisions of the Seventh Five-Year Development Plan Bill in the Field of Housing, Urban Development, and Civil Construction

Article ID:19703

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16758.1707

Ali Farnam, Navid Paknejad, Mohammad Reza Abdoli, Mahsa Payab, Somayeh Jalili Sadrabad, Hiwa Sayyaf

Abstract In analyzing the super-challenge of housing, the continuous decline in annual housing production over the past decade, accompanied by major macroeconomic shocks, inflationary waves, and the intensified investment-oriented character of housing, together with increased migration toward metropolitan areas and the interaction of these three macro-trends, has led to the longest and most severe wave of housing price increases. With the continuous decline in household housing affordability, only a small share of consumption demand is able to secure or purchase housing, and most new demand, young couples, foreign nationals, and job-related and educational migrants are inevitably pushed into the rental market. In a macro-level assessment, the most important achievement of the Seventh Plan Bill in the housing sector is its focused attention to housing and its treatment of the sector in the form of a dedicated chapter with its dimensions and pillars. However, the housing chapter (Articles 49 to 55) does not have a strongly programmatic nature and, instead of presenting a roadmap and a comprehensive medium-term package for the housing sector, it has merely emphasized three specific areas: (a) expanding the scope of the powers of the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development as the implementing body; (b) amending and modifying the Law on the Production Surge of Housing; and © making maximum use of the land instrument to realize housing-sector programs. This is despite the expectation that, in line with the Constitution, general policies, and the territorial planning framework based on problem-oriented policymaking, the bill would provide explicit responses concerning housing for low-income groups, housing affordability, the rental system, resilience and crisis management, urban management, urban planning systems, regional development, and territorial planning. In this report, alongside a comprehensive pathology of the bill in the fields of housing, urban development, and civil development, proposals are presented in the form of amendments and additional provisions, in line with past experiences and global studies.

Monitoring Investment Security by Province and Field of Activity (24): Autumn 2023

Article ID:19889

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.17039.1859

Iman Tehrani, Amin Ghanbari

Abstract The quarterly reports on investment security seek to draw the attention of the country’s officials to this key factor in economic development—which has, however, remained neglected in Iran’s economic policymaking—in order to contribute to discourse-building aimed at enhancing investment security, strengthening the enforceability of the property rights of Iran’s economic actors, and improving the objective and real conditions of economic security and the investment climate. This report has been prepared using officially published and publicly available statistics, as well as an assessment of 8,608 sampled economic actors selected from among economic actors in all provinces of the country. The result of the conducted research is the evaluation of the Investment Security Index in Iran for the autumn quarter of 2023 and the calculation of its seven related indicators. Based on the calculations carried out, the overall Investment Security Index in Iran- which is compiled using two sets of survey and statistical data—was measured at 5.70 out of 10 in autumn 2023 (with 10 representing the worst condition), whereas its value in summer 2023 was 5.66. It should be noted that the numerical value of this index in the spring 2023 study had been estimated at 5.73, indicating that although investment security had moved along a trend of improvement from spring to summer 2023, and in a sense had followed an improving trajectory in the first half of 2023 owing to the stabilization of some variables and a more positive evaluation of some other components, this trend encountered some disruption in autumn 2023, and the Investment Security Index once again deteriorated slightly compared with the previous quarter.

Developments in the Monetary and Banking System in 2022

Article ID:20017

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.17196.1947

Mostafa Habibollah Pourzereshki, Mohammad Hossein Ebadi

Abstract An examination of the condition of the banking network across various dimensions shows that the country’s major challenges in the banking sector include the existence of some severely unsound and imbalanced banks, unbalanced and inequitable bank financing, the concentration of financial resources in persons affiliated with banks, and the accumulation of government debt to privatized and state-owned banks. The existence of imbalanced banks in practice imposes the persistence of liquidity growth at a level higher than the average on the country’s economy. The result of this situation will be the persistence of inflation at levels above its long-term average (25 percent) and macroeconomic instability in the country, which is the most important macroeconomic issue facing the country in the coming years. Therefore, part of the solution to the problem of inflation control is to control liquidity growth through resolving severely unsound banks and devising solutions regarding bank imbalances.

Explaining the Condition of Iran’s Financial Markets (the Capital Market and the Insurance Industry) During the Years 2020 and 2021

Article ID:20084

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.17309.2015

Salavatiyan Mohammadamin, Seyed Mohammad Afqahi

Abstract Financial markets are among the most important sectors of a country’s economy; in addition to facilitating the circulation and optimal allocation of financial resources, they provide risk-coverage capacity for many economic activities. This report examines the condition of the capital market and the insurance market in the country during the years 2020 and 2021. During this period, the capital market witnessed special challenges and developments, including the unprecedented welcome of the general public toward stock market investment at the beginning of 2020, the release of Justice Shares, and the severe market downturn in the summer of 2020. The volume of financing during these years grew rapidly in the capital market. In such a way that, in these two years, 50 different companies were either initially offered or subscribed in the stock exchange and over-the-counter market, and the volume of securities issued in the debt market also experienced remarkable growth. Another important economic market is the insurance market or insurance industry, whose role in achieving economic development and improving citizens’ welfare is vital. By covering various risks in the economic system, this industry makes the expansion and development of economic activity possible. On the other hand, this industry invests the financial resources pooled from policyholders in economic projects and activities. Usually, the nature of the collected financial resources is long-term, and it can therefore be used in projects with long gestation periods. Nevertheless, despite the insurance industry’s capacity for financing, the reviews show that the insurance penetration rate, which was stated as 7 percent in the Sixth Development Law, has not been realized in the insurance industry.