Volume & Issue: Volume 33, Issue 8, October 2025 
گروه رفاه و سیاست های اجتماعی

Comparative Review of Theoretical Foundations of PMI Institute Standards with Regulations Related to the Technical and Executive System Document 1. Program (Portfolio) and Project (Program) Management

Article ID:21104

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21104

Mohammad Reza Heidari

Abstract Over three decades have passed since the approval of the first regulation related to the country's technical and executive system. During this period, other regulations related to the country's technical and executive system have been approved, using which numerous civil projects have been implemented at various national and provincial levels. The large volume of incomplete projects, failure to achieve cost, time, and quality goals, and budget resource shortages for advancing incomplete and new projects alongside the country's need for infrastructure development are among the most important reasons making technical and executive system reform necessary after these three decades' experience. Accordingly, this report has attempted, through a comparative review of the Portfolio Management Standard and Program Management Standard as international standards (for achieving organizations' and institutions' strategic goals) with the technical and executive system document and its regulations, to provide a clear picture of the status of upstream documents in the country's technical and executive system compared to international standards. The comparative review clearly shows the absence of a cohesive and integrated theoretical framework capable of achieving strategic goals in the path of national progress and development in the country's technical and executive system upstream documents. In other words, in the country's technical and executive system, the connection point and link between strategic goals (for example, goals set in development program laws) and civil projects (equivalent to executive programs) is not specified.

Expert Opinion on the Executive Regulation of Paragraph Kh of Article 71 of the Seventh Five-Year Development Program Law of the Islamic Republic of Iran with Emphasis on Food Safety

Article ID:21105

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21105

M CH

Abstract Establishing a traceability and identification system for agricultural products is considered a requirement for enhancing agricultural product health in the supply chain, and despite emphasis on this issue in past development program laws, these laws have not been properly implemented; therefore, in Paragraph Kh of Article 71 of the Seventh Five-Year Development Program Law, establishing a traceability system, identifying raw agricultural products, and monitoring residues is raised again, and the Ministry of Agriculture Jihad, in cooperation with the Ministry of Health, Treatment, and Medical Education and the National Standards Organization of Iran, is obligated to implement this program. The executive regulation of this paragraph was approved by the Cabinet. Analysis shows that the mentioned regulation lacks necessary details, and most operational programs are postponed to future guideline drafting. In terms of compliance, it conflicts with the Permanent Development Program Provisions Law and the Seventh Five-Year Development Program Law. Additionally, conflicts among some regulation provisions and ambiguities in scope and some definitions are observed. It was expected that the current executive regulation, by forecasting specific executive mechanisms, including utilizing associations' capacities, providing non-chemical inputs, and creating necessary platforms for healthy product production, would facilitate law goal realization. The mentioned objections seriously threaten the supervisory system's efficiency, and without reform, can lead to reduced food safety levels, resource waste, and ultimately public health threats; therefore, it is proposed that the esteemed government annul this approval or the esteemed Assembly Speaker return the regulation to the Cabinet for reconsideration.

Expert Opinion on: “Bill on the List of Invalid Laws and Provisions in the Veterans Domain” (Returned from the Guardian Council (2))

Article ID:20801-2

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.20801-2

Abstract To codify veterans-related laws, the Bill on the List of Invalid Laws and Provisions in the Veterans Domain was approved on April 20, 2025, in the Islamic Consultative Assembly, faced one ambiguity from the Guardian Council after submission, and was returned. To address the Guardian Council's ambiguity, the Assembly applied amendments on July 20, 2025, and after resubmission, the Guardian Council again deemed some provisions ambiguous. Accordingly, this bill was discussed again on October 13, 2025, in the Social Committee. The Guardian Council's ambiguities include cases like ambiguity due to not mentioning some notes of several articles, which the mentioned committee addressed by specifying repealed and valid cases and approved amendments to resolve ambiguities, which appear to resolve the Guardian Council's ambiguities.

Expert Opinion on: “Bill to Amend Article 87 of the Public Services Management Law” (Returned from the Guardian Council (3))

Article ID:20948-1

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.20948-1

Abstract The Bill to Amend Article 87 of the Public Services Management Law, after addressing High Supervisory Board objections in the final stage and submission to the Guardian Council, faced further High Supervisory Board objections again, and after re-referral from the floor to the committee, the mentioned bill was reviewed again in the Social Committee session dated October 13, 2025, with amendments applied. In this report, reviewing the committee's approval, it appears that the High Supervisory Board's objections have been resolved. Therefore, it is proposed that the committee's approval be passed by the Islamic Consultative Assembly.

Performance Evaluation of the Seventh Development Program Until the End of September 2025: Chapter 9 – Energy

Article ID:21102

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21102

A N

Abstract The Seventh Development Program has addressed four main national issues in the energy industry. Energy imbalance, especially natural gas, is identified as a main challenge, emphasizing consumption optimization alongside production capacity development for sustainable energy supply. Accordingly, besides quantitative targets, important provisions like private sector entry to increase natural gas production capacity, renewable electricity development, and energy consumption optimization are considered. Besides imbalance, three other important issues including Iran's removal from regional and global energy equations, lack of oil and gas value chain continuity, and lack of financial transparency in energy industry income and costs are addressed in the Seventh Program. This report examines Chapter Nine (energy) performance status in the first year. Although some energy-related provisions (Articles 14, 15, 48, and 62) exist in other program chapters reviewed in related chapter reports. Overall, first-year performance summary shows that the Seventh Program's most important energy industry goal, energy consumption optimization, has not been pursued in both gas and electricity sectors and lacks satisfactory performance. Additionally, although first-year indicators are minimally defined, realized performance, especially in electricity, is not notable. Accordingly, continuing the current trend without strengthening executive actions could mean failing to achieve the Seventh Development Program's final energy goals.

AI Governance (9): Necessity of an AI Governing Institution in the Country and Proposed Operational Structure

Article ID:21101

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21101

Abstract Artificial intelligence is not merely a simple technological tool but a representation of transformative agency. This technology's development is a fundamentally political phenomenon with widespread implications around power construction, governance mechanisms, and social-political transformations, indicating a new political order. Accordingly, our country must adopt a precise strategy. Effective governance in artificial intelligence requires deep and fundamental engagement with this technology at all levels. Choosing this technology's development strategy in the country, besides deep and fundamental engagement with this technology at all levels and understanding technical and theoretical foundations, philosophical implications, and social-political consequences, must stem from precise monitoring of national and global conditions, requirements, and macro goals. Imitation in this technology's development strategies will yield nothing but increasing backwardness. For fully utilizing artificial intelligence's transformative capacity, the country should prioritize fundamental research over mere application development, creating a strong advantage for future innovation and competitiveness. This, besides national-level coordination necessity, exceeds the capacity of private sector, university, and existing institutions like the Vice Presidency for Science, Technology, and Knowledge-Based Economy or the Ministry of Communications. This is achievable only in an agile, interdisciplinary, and elite institution focused on artificial intelligence. This report proposes a national artificial intelligence governance and development institution comprising a three-part structure (high-level research unit, strategic planning unit, artificial intelligence technology research and development unit) realizable as a National Artificial Intelligence Organization.

Performance Evaluation of the Seventh Development Program Until the End of September 2025: Chapter 7 – Food Security and Enhancing Agricultural Product Production

Article ID:21117

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21117

M CH, M B

Abstract Performance of agriculture-related duties in Chapter Seven of the Seventh Development Program Law is evaluated in this report, emphasizing food security. For this purpose, Chapter Seven duties performance is assessed in 6 key food security-related axes, including increasing production and self-sufficiency in strategic agricultural products; securing financial and credit resources; targeting supportive policies; managing agricultural production base resources; agricultural product value chain; and agricultural and food product health and quality. Evaluation results indicate some executive shortcomings in duty implementation; in most cases, no change in execution style is observed, and many provisions have low performance due to reasons like financial resource shortages or inter-agency incoordination. This necessitates reforming executive and supervisory trends to enhance the mentioned duties' performance.

Study and Review of Higher Education System's Role in Employability and Timely Youth Entry into the Labor Market

Article ID:21115

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21115

Abstract Despite important duties the higher education system has in university youth employment and labor market, graduates' employment rate is assessed low over consecutive years. These individuals achieve job stability with delay and from around age 28. In the higher education system regarding this issue, at least four important factors exist: minimal alignment between university graduates' number and labor market demand, low student job skills, weakness in job search process, and lengthy and minimally flexible academic programs. The Ministry of Science, Research, and Technology takes actions related to the labor market, including industry scholarships and jobs, technology assistants, student assistants, job matching, skill training, job fair holding, and graduate employment monitoring, but most face challenges like non-comprehensiveness, multiple implementers, unclear targeting, ambiguity in quality and effectiveness, and lack of stable financial resources. To help solve these issues, approving a Cabinet regulation titled Facilitating Universities' Role in Student Employability, focusing on drafting indicators for considering local labor market in determining academic discipline admission capacity, considering graduates' employment status in university budget aids, approving a comprehensive program for organizing student employability-related schemes, reducing academic years, creating flexible full-time and part-time academic structures, providing incentive budgets to successful and top universities in employability schemes, and creating a fund for supporting student employability in the Ministry of Science, Research, and Technology is proposed, with details presented at the report's end.

Examining the Relationship Between Administration and Politics in Iran: Analysis of Concepts, History, and Evidence

Article ID:21113

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21113

F GH

Abstract Constructive relationship and interaction between political and professional sectors is a factor in achieving desirable governance. However, administration-politics relations are sometimes ineffective, with each sector seeking to impose its will on the other. This phenomenon is referred to as politicization of bureaucracy and bureaucratization of politics. In this report, after explaining fundamental concepts due to the importance of political and professional body relationship, administration-politics relationship before and after the Islamic Revolution is analyzed. This report's findings indicate that before and after the Islamic Revolution, bureaucracy politicization and politics bureaucratization have been evident with varying intensity and forms in administration-politics relationship. At the report's final section, some reasons for distorted and tense administration-politics relationship in Iran are examined.

Review of Government Oversight Methods on Municipalities Based on Global Models

Article ID:21111

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21111

Abstract Government oversight on municipalities is examinable within the central government-municipalities relationship framework, highlighted since many governments implemented decentralization. This oversight type, external (central government) on local governments, is often to ensure municipalities' action legality, performed by government representatives. Experiences in Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia (as unitary non-decentralized governance countries) show that despite granting significant decision-making and legislative powers to municipalities, the central government oversees administrative and financial aspects, but scope and nature differ. In these countries, the Ministry of Interior is the main municipal oversight entity, operationalizing oversight and inspection mainly through governorships (higher administrative-political level over municipalities). Municipal oversight in Japan includes judicial procedures for resolving central government-municipality disputes, with financial oversight prioritizing administrative aspects. In South Korea, based on win-win cooperation principle, the central government oversees municipalities' administrative and financial affairs, with judicial dispute resolution paths open. Municipal oversight in Indonesia mainly includes performance evaluation, with guiding nature through penalties or incentives to municipalities. These countries' experiences show that to clarify government-local institution relationship like municipalities in Iran, the Ministry of Interior's (Municipalities and Village Administrations Organization) municipal oversight nature, type, and procedures must be determined under a legal framework.

Performance Evaluation of the Seventh Development Program Until the End of September 2025: Chapter 12 – Transit and Sea-Oriented Economy

Article ID:21112

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21112

S M, R B

Abstract Given the issue-oriented approach in the Seventh Development Program Law and considering the vital and irreparable opportunities of the program's five years for reviving Iran's geographical capacities for role-playing in the new regional and global economic-political order, Chapter 12 of the program is dedicated to the transit and sea-oriented economy issue. This chapter's macro approach is abandoning past inefficient mechanisms and new rail-laying for executive agencies' movement (based on forming the National Transit Headquarters) to address challenges in utilizing Iran's geographical and territorial capacities, including: 1) Border adaptation time and cost dozens of times higher compared to other regional and global countries; 2) Lack of design and introduction of Iran's international corridor initiative by relevant agencies to create international freight and passenger transport demand for Iran's transit routes; 3) Indecision in prioritizing and scheduling railway and port infrastructure project construction; 4) Shortage and obsolescence of public transport fleet; 5) Insufficient attention to sea-oriented economy and Makran region development; 6) Relatively low road safety per road accident fatality statistics. Review of the government's movement path in the program's first year generally shows that regarding challenges 1 to 5, the government has not moved according to the Seventh Development Program's rail-laying and has had almost no performance in addressing these challenges. In axis 6, with supervisory follow-ups by Assembly committees, the government has started moving on the Seventh Development Program's new rail-laying, with relatively satisfactory performance in holding Supreme Transport and Safety Council sessions and preparing the Operational Program for Enhancing National Road Safety.

Comparative Study of Higher Education System's Role in Employability and Timely Youth Entry into the Labor Market

Article ID:21108

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21108

Abstract Higher education is a widespread system where individuals often establish long and stable connections in youth ages. Today, this system, besides expanding knowledge boundaries, has important societal responsibilities like facilitating timely youth employment. Accordingly, countries like the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States approve and implement various policies to strengthen university-labor market links for improving university youth employment status. Analysis in this report shows that these three countries' governments, appropriately, have prioritized policies for improving higher education labor market outcomes: internships, work-based education, considering labor market outcomes as a budget allocation indicator to universities, public publication of university performance data in labor market domain, scholarship granting, university cooperation with job placement agencies, universities' role in innovation ecosystem, and professional degree granting. Additionally, four contextual factors exist aiding these policies' realization and potentially increasing timely university youth employability: lack of centralization in higher education administration, defining part-time academic models in higher education structure, and strong general education system in occupational and skill preparation. Utilizing the mentioned policies and considering the contextual factors, aligned with national requirements and characteristics, can yield effective policy approaches for enhancing university performance and improving university youth employment in the country.

System Dynamics Analysis Series Reports (4): Dynamic Analysis of Air Pollution in Tehran Metropolis

Article ID:21110

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21110

SH J

Abstract This study's purpose is modeling suspended particle concentrations in air (PM2.5 and PM10) and evaluating various policies for reducing these pollutants in Tehran city's air as a case study. To aid policymakers in adopting appropriate policies and strategies for solving air pollution, using system dynamics methodology, dynamic factors affecting suspended particle concentrations in Tehran's air are identified, causal and loop relationships formulated, and by model execution (using twenty-two-year average data from 2001–2023) and managerial dashboard construction, proposed action results for reducing suspended particle concentrations are simulated, and finally appropriate policies and strategies for air pollution reduction are presented, potentially effective in future years.

Regional Cooperation Capacities in Climate Change Domain

Article ID:21126

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21126

Abstract Climate change, as a transnational challenge with increasing consequences like intensifying extreme events and water stress, necessitates international cooperation. Developing countries, despite growing greenhouse gas emission shares, face double vulnerability and transboundary damages from global emission reduction actions due to infrastructure limitations and low resilience. West Asia, as a climate hotspot with warming rates exceeding global averages and severe consequences like reduced precipitation, increasing water stress, dust storms, coastal floods, and food security threats, requires integrated policy approaches and strengthened climate diplomacy for sustainable shared resource management and avoiding tensions. Regional cooperation among developing countries enhances adaptation capacity through knowledge and climate technology transfer and improves access to international climate financial resources by creating a unified collective voice. In this report, national challenges and opportunities in climate change are evaluated, then various countries' goals, actions, challenges, and opportunities in climate change are reviewed, and based on that, common cooperation capacities with other countries are identified. Finally, to utilize existing regional capacities, solutions including strengthening climate diplomacy, managing transboundary climate issues, developing renewable (clean) energies and green technologies, reducing emissions in production and energy consumption sectors, and building capacity for research and knowledge-based cooperation are presented.

Evaluation of “Performance Metrics for Enhancing the Research, Technology, and Innovation System” Based on the Seventh Development Program

Article ID:21124

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21124

S KH

Abstract A major challenge in development programs and their implementation is providing a real picture of current status and targeting to reach it at the program's deadline. This aids precisely quantifying domain indicators and logical targeting in various programs. Monitoring technology indicators, especially in development programs, evaluates output and results relative to input and spent resources, allowing changing executive and policy models in case of inefficiency and low effectiveness. This report, by providing a clear picture of current science and technology indicators status, attempts to present a real view of science and technology landscape at the Seventh Development Program's end. This report's results can serve as a prelude to realistic expectations in subsequent programs or budget allocation in following years based on it.

گروه رفاه و سیاست های اجتماعی

Identifying Deprived Areas (2): History of Deprived Areas Identification Studies in Iran

Article ID:21123

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21123

Abstract Deprived areas identification studies trace back to early post-Islamic Revolution years, indicating the issue's importance. These studies can generally be divided into 11 periods, examining existing reports from these research execution stages, identifying process pathology, reviewing deprived areas geography changes, and most importantly policymaker's view transformations on deprivation phenomenon over time. Attention to deprivation intensity concept (deprived areas classification), using composite indicators for determining deprived areas, attention to deprived areas study level (per national divisions), involving local authorities in deprivation indicators determination mechanism, emphasizing multi-faceted policymaking (not limiting to budget credit distribution) for deprived areas alleviation, and attention to territorial planning are strengths raised in these studies' evolution but mostly unaddressed. In contrast, unclear application of national deprived areas list for policymakers, policymaker's ambiguous understanding of deprivation phenomenon, reducing deprived areas identification to locating national infrastructure shortages, premature announcement of deprived areas identification study failure, and incorrect facing various deprivation levels are major weaknesses in this study set, questioning their application and ultimately halting them. Deprived areas identification studies, with all ups and downs, can be considered policymaker's axis for better understanding deprivation issue, abandoning it at the First Development Program Law beginning can be titled starting point for separating deprivation alleviation planning process from deprivation alleviation realities.

An Introduction to Metaphors in Governance

Article ID:21119

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21119

A K

Abstract This report examines metaphors' role in governance based on domestic and foreign sources. Metaphors are not merely linguistic tools but conceptual frameworks facilitating understanding and conveying complex concepts. In this report, metaphors are shown effective in simplifying complexities, shaping policies, and strengthening political and social communications. The twelve-stage metaphor cycle is also proposed as a model for identifying, developing, and stabilizing them in governance thinking. This cycle helps transform metaphors from discovery to policy stabilization stage into an analytical and operational framework. Metaphors have two key functions: first, conceptualizing and simplifying complex issues; second, persuasive function in gaining support and public awareness. For effective utilization of these capacities, policymakers should use tools like discourse analysis and opinion polling to determine which metaphors have more meaning and influence among people. For example, in population policies, metaphors like children as Iran's future architects can enhance programs' acceptability and effectiveness. The Assembly Research Center can institutionalize metaphor identification and application process by creating specialized working groups and continuous research. The next step is designing a localized and comprehensive framework for identifying, implementing, and evaluating metaphors; a framework utilizing interdisciplinary studies and global experiences, cooperating with scientific and executive institutions, aiding governance enhancement and increasing social trust.

Review of Article 7 of the Law on Enhancing Administrative System Health and Combating Corruption Regarding Implementing the Approved Ethical and Administrative Charter and Professional Ethics of System Agents

Article ID:21121

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21121

N M, Y A

Abstract This report attempts supervisory review of drafting and implementing Article 7 of the Law on Enhancing Administrative System Health and Combating Corruption, mandating drafting the ethical and administrative charter and professional ethics of system agents, critiquing and evaluating it. In fact, this legal article obligates public and private organizations and institutions to comply with professional ethics in all activities. Analysis shows that the ethical and administrative charter and professional ethics of system agents was approved by the Cabinet in 2021. However, per this law, ethical charter approval should have occurred within 6 months after law approval (2008). On the other hand, analysis indicates that nearly two years after ethical charter approval, content and supervisory process issues exist in implementation method. Accordingly, based on existing implementation objections, the mentioned ethical charter was repealed, and on January 28, 2024, a new regulation titled Regulation on Enhancing Professional Ethics in Administrative System was approved by the Cabinet. Therefore, it appears that the Islamic Consultative Assembly, by designing appropriate tools, mechanisms, and procedures for overseeing executive agencies in law implementation, can take an important step in this path.

Performance Evaluation of the Seventh Development Program Until the End of September 2025: Chapter 11 – Housing Development

Article ID:21118

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21118

A F, M B, M P, S J

Abstract In the Seventh Development Program implementation framework, a fundamental and emphasized legislator axis is the necessity of continuous, systematic, and targeted oversight on achieving program quantitative and qualitative goals. Oversight, as policymaking's complementary pillar, plays a fundamental role in measuring provision realization extent, evaluating executive actions' alignment with macro policies, and identifying institutional and executive bottlenecks. Accordingly, learning from past development programs' experiences and limited realization, in the Seventh Development Program, Article 118 provided a special and distinct Supreme Steering Council mechanism for precise and annual oversight of provision implementation, with annual budget provisions alignment and executive agencies' performance examined through two executive and financial monitors and reflected to the Islamic Consultative Assembly. This report, aimed at analyzing implementation status and oversight on the housing chapter in the national Seventh Development Program, is structured in two sections. In the first section, approved housing chapter provisions are collected and explained to provide a comprehensive picture of this section's policy and program structure. In the second section, focusing on the main super-challenge targeted in the first chapter, oversight and evaluation of executive agencies' performance, quantitative goal realization extent, and documents and actions' alignment with program macro orientations are addressed. This chapter analytically reviews program performance in its first year, identifying goal realization obstacles while ultimately offering proposals for performance enhancement and Seventh Development Program reform.

Monitoring Iran’s Real Economy: Monthly GDP Estimation (September 2025)

Article ID:21137

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21137

A A

Abstract Having a timely and reliable picture of GDP trends can significantly enhance policymaking and macroeconomic monitoring. Given delays in statistical authorities’ data and repeated requests from Assembly representatives for more current economic growth data, the Research Center has developed a computational infrastructure to estimate and report Iran’s economic growth monthly and promptly. According to the Central Bank’s latest 2024 data, GDP grew by 3.1% with oil and 3% without oil compared to the previous year. The Center’s estimates show a 0.8% GDP growth and 1% non-oil GDP growth in September 2025 compared to September 2024. The agriculture sector recorded a -3.8% growth, crude oil and natural gas -1.6%, industries and mining 1.4%, and services 4%.

Strategic Policy Package for Implementing Environmental Impact Assessment with Emphasis on Paragraph A of Article 22 of the Seventh Development Program

Article ID:21134

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21134

M CH

Abstract Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), as a key tool in ensuring sustainable development, plays a vital role in identifying and preventing negative consequences of civil and industrial projects. In Iran, although EIA legal history dates back to the 1990s with scattered regulations, the lack of a comprehensive, inclusive, and permanent law clearly defining relevant institutions' responsibility boundaries is a main challenge. This legal deficiency, alongside other structural, institutional, and executive challenges, has weakened EIA system effectiveness. Analysis of national development projects shows a deep law-execution gap, with 188 projects progressing physically without obtaining environmental permits. In response, Paragraph A of Article 22 of the Seventh Development Program Law, by setting clear legal duties for the Environmental Protection Organization, provides significant capacity for improving and institutionalizing the EIA process. This report, through legal and executive analysis of this paragraph, offers a policy-strategic package focusing on institutional structure reform, institutionalizing Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), creating a national integrated database for ecological capacity data to determine land uses compatible with it, developing data infrastructure, and strengthening legal enforcement guarantees. The package aims to transform environmental assessment from a formal action into an effective sustainable development management tool preventing environmental destruction. Achieving this package requires legal support, expert capacity increase, and sustainable financial resources for continuous monitoring and oversight.

Expert Opinion on: “Bill to Amend the Monetary and Banking Law of the Country (Removing 4 Zeros from National Currency)” (Returned from the Guardian Council) 1

Article ID:21133

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21133

M B

Abstract The bill to amend the Monetary and Banking Law of the Country on removing 4 zeros from national currency and changing the currency unit to Toman was approved urgently by the Cabinet in 2019 and sent to the Assembly. Expert evaluations show that this policy, in Iran's current economic conditions, lacks significant economic benefits and raises concerns regarding compliance with legislative priorities in Clause 15 of the General Legislative Policies promulgated on September 27, 2019, by the Supreme Leader, incurring substantial executive and economic costs like standard changes, banknote collection, and increased inflationary expectations. Additionally, removing 4 zeros while retaining Rial title and defining Qiran unit can create ambiguities and difficulties for economic actors. Therefore, the Research Center, despite resolving the Guardian Council's ambiguity, opposes this bill's approval. Given the determination of the country's currency system and exchange rate determination method in Paragraph A of Article 44 of the Central Bank Law, this note is ambiguous. It appears the drafter sought a legal channel for administrative exchange rate determination and law violation, while the Central Bank Law and Permanent Development Program Provisions Law explicitly set a managed floating currency system. To prevent legal ambiguities, removing this Note 1 is essential.

Pathology of Faculty Promotion with “Issue-Oriented” Approach in the Draft Promotion Regulation of the Ministries of Science and Health Within Article 97 of the Seventh Development Program Law

Article ID:21127

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21127

Abstract This report examines the draft faculty promotion regulation with an issue-oriented approach prepared by the Ministries of Science and Health within Paragraph A of Article 97 of the Seventh Development Program Law execution framework. Per law provisions, the main goal of this draft is revising faculty evaluation and motivation system based on program-oriented, mission-oriented, and issue-oriented approaches. Results show that despite efforts to align with the Supreme Cultural Revolution Council's approval Determining Governing Principles for Revising Faculty Promotion Regulation in Universities and Higher Education, Research, and Technology Institutions and Note 1 of Paragraph A of Article 97 of the Seventh Development Program Law, some challenges persist. Specifically, promotion based on solving national and regional issues has not achieved expected position in the draft promotion regulation, with no effective link to Clause J of Article 12 of the Law on Maximum Utilization of Domestic Production and Service Capacities mandating replacing scores from solving national and regional issues with mandatory article publication scores. This report specifically addresses issue-orientation, but distinguishing various scientific domains, diverse scientific institutions' functions, and these differences' impact on promotion system are important issues overlooked in the proposed regulation. In other words, the existing draft structure more continues the current approach while formally complying with the governing principles approval requirements, paying little attention to the Seventh Development Program provisions and shifting from article-oriented to mission-oriented and issue-oriented. This report, while pathologically reviewing the latest draft promotion regulation version from issue-orientation perspective, offers proposals, most importantly: • Enhancing Article on innovative activities related to societal issues by mandating institutions to replace part of this article's scores with mandatory (veto) article publication scores; • Targeting specific institutions' rules and regulations by mandating full replacement of innovative activities and societal issues article scores with existing rules; • Separating minimum educational-training and research scores tables for promotion in basic sciences, humanities, social and behavioral sciences, engineering, agriculture and natural resources, art, Islamic studies, veterinary medicine, and medical clinical disciplines groups; • Strengthening and completing board compositions for comprehensiveness and evaluation efficiency through issue-oriented faculty presence; • For greater draft regulation alignment with upstream documents, especially the Seventh Development Program, awarding scores to hosting technological, applied, and industrial postdocs is proposed. Implementing these strategies can facilitate promotion regulation reform in removing barriers to issue-oriented professors' promotion. However, the fundamental step toward Article 97 of the Seventh Development Program Law goals is reforming national research financing system

Pathological Review of Northern Cities Waste Management Oversight on Clause Th of Article 38 of the Sixth Development Program Law

Article ID:21128

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21128

M R

Abstract Waste management in three northern provinces (Gilan, Mazandaran, and Golestan) is a serious environmental, public health, social, and economic challenge. Due to specific climate, high vegetation density, and high tourist attraction, these regions face substantial waste production. Analysis shows these provinces' ordinary waste production share exceeds their population share nationally. Dumping on beaches and forests, insufficient source separation and destination processing infrastructure, and improper landfill have increased pollutant concentrations in water, soil, and air, leading to higher contagious or incurable disease risks, social tensions, and economic damage in waste management execution. Despite substantial credits allocated over two decades, many waste management projects like waste-to-energy plants, processing centers, and leachate treatment plants have not fully operated or performed satisfactorily. This study's findings show that northern provinces' current waste management status results from deficiencies, flaws, and challenges in legislative, oversight, and executive waste management domains. Proposals include utilizing the Islamic Consultative Assembly's oversight capacity on responsible agencies' performance in northern provinces waste management, enhancing legislation, utilizing existing legislative waste management capacities, and strengthening current governance and executive waste management structure in three northern provinces.

Dimensions and Components of Local Governance in the Islamic Republic of Iran (Meta-Synthesis of Research by Governmental Institutions Responsible for Local Governance Research Centers)

Article ID:21129

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21129

T E

Abstract The main issue in this report is meta-synthesis of research on decentralization challenges and opportunities in Iran's governance conducted over three decades by decision-making institutions' research bodies in the Islamic Republic of Iran. The research aims to achieve comprehensive understanding of local governance by examining various views and offer practical solutions for improvement. Key findings show that any local governance model must address four main dimensions: first, central-local relations structure examining administrative and legal connections between central government and local institutions. Issues like councils' defective bureaucracy, inter-sectoral incoordination, and councils' authority infringement are raised. Participatory governance dimension examines public participation and local election models. Issues like needing political participation mechanism reform, citizen empowerment, and policy participation institutionalization are addressed. Third dimension is planning and budgeting examining local planning and budgeting processes. Issues like weak planning expertise, non-systemic planning performance, and councils' resource instability are raised. Fourth dimension is oversight examining local councils' performance oversight mechanisms. Issues like inefficient oversight mechanisms and transparency necessity are addressed. Conclusion is that improving local governance in Iran requires structural and legal reforms, strengthening public participation, improving planning and budgeting processes, and creating effective oversight mechanisms.

Expert Opinion on: “Bill for the Accession of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the Agreement on Establishing the International Anti-Corruption Academy as an International Organization”

Article ID:21135

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21135

H J, M A

Abstract This report examines the bill for the Islamic Republic of Iran's accession to the agreement establishing the International Anti-Corruption Academy as an international organization. Over 80 countries worldwide have joined this agreement. In the Islamic Republic of Iran, given existing domestic laws, necessary capacities for joining the mentioned agreement are provided. Generally, accession to the agreement establishing the International Anti-Corruption Scientific Institution as a specialized international body enables accessing technical knowledge and specialized tools in this domain while utilizing the institution's capacities in networking and providing recommendations to other related international organizations and institutions. Therefore, after resolving ambiguities and objections regarding working group members composition (Note 2 of the single article), its duties, bill title, and some phrases, approving this agreement is proposed. Among policy proposals: adding the General Inspection Organization and Ministry of Science, Research, and Technology as working group members per Note 2 of the bill's single article; determining the responsible agency for law implementation and its precise duties based on national macro policies and existing laws in the law's executive regulation; amending Academy translation to Scientific Institution instead of University in the bill text; complying with Article 125 of the Constitution and specifying it in Note 1 of the single article; adding a note for the Islamic Republic of Iran's agreement implementation per domestic laws and regulations.

Pathology of Implementing Article 25 of the Family and Youth Population Support Law on the Online System for Introducing and Issuing Special Identifiers for Mothers with Three or More Children and Cultural Support for Them

Article ID:21136

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21136

Abstract Article 25 of the Family and Youth Population Support Law has two main axes: first, creating a system for identifying mothers with three or more children; second, mandating agencies to provide cultural, recreational, sports, and urban transport services with discounts to these mothers and families. Pathology of the article's implementation process shows lack of provision clarity in identifying obligated executive agencies, incomplete connection of all Article 25-obligated agencies to the Civil Registration Organization's online mother identification system, wide audience scope, gap between provided supports and three-or-more-children families' real needs, lack of required credit for private sector implementation, weak information dissemination on provision discounts, dependency of children's service enjoyment on mother's national code and potential non-enjoyment due to other family members' unawareness, unclear exact service types for discounts among executive challenges facing Article 25 of the Family and Youth Population Support Law. It is proposed to strengthen this provision by creating an integrated system of various services agencies can provide mothers, based on service diversity and supports, by the National Population Headquarters secretariat to increase provision effectiveness and provide more appropriate services to mothers' needs. Additionally, all mothers giving birth (regardless of children number) can enjoy this integrated system's services.

Supervisory Report on Managing Four Protected Areas Categories Oversight on Article 3 of the Environmental Protection and Improvement Law

Article ID:21138

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21138

E S

Abstract Managing national four protected areas categories (national parks, national natural monuments, wildlife refuges, and protected areas) plays a key role in achieving national and international biodiversity goals. Article 3 of the Environmental Protection and Improvement Law obligates the Environmental Protection Organization and Supreme Environmental Council to determine, approve, and manage these areas. Despite over 19.8 million hectares coverage and progress like management document drafting, infrastructure development, upgrading some lands' protection level, and starting smartization, fundamental weaknesses prevent full protection goal realization. Main challenges include lack of comprehensive monitoring system, insufficient sustainable budget, specialized human resource shortage, developmental pressures, and area replacement instead of qualitative management enhancement. This has resulted in only about 9.5% of protected areas undergoing Protected Area Management Effectiveness (PAME) evaluation; while tools like Management Effectiveness Tracking Tool (METT), with resource, infrastructure, and training provision, can provide a global standard framework for management quality assessment. Additionally, Seventh Development Program Law provisions emphasize 100% four categories coverage, legal guarantee enhancement, and habitat restoration. Therefore, rearranging these areas' management based on mother laws, program requirements, quantitative performance indicators, and international standards is essential. Implementing integrated monitoring system, dedicated sustainable budget line, active local community participation strengthening, and avoiding area replacement can enhance protection quality, strengthen evidence-based management, and stabilize Iran's position in international commitments like the Convention on Biological Diversity.

گروه رفاه و سیاست های اجتماعی

Review of Government Financial Performance and 2024 Budget Law Implementation

Article ID:21139

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21139

Abstract 2024 budget law implementation, alongside some successes, faced fundamental challenges. Positive points include notable 56% growth in tax and customs revenues compared to last year, indicating improved tax collection and better government performance in sustainable revenues. However, some forecasted government resources were unrealized; especially vehicle import revenue, crude oil sales, and government asset monetization were below approved figures. Additionally, unforeseen incidents and 2024 being a government transition year delayed some reforms while significantly increasing government's emergency and unavoidable expenditures. This resulted in substantial government financial balance deficit and budget resource pressure. In 2024, total government credit supply was about 3090 trillion tomans, with 2299 trillion tomans from approved budget law resources and about 791 trillion tomans from other extra-budget receipts. These extra-budget resources included additional debt securities issuance, National Development Fund borrowing, Central Bank overdraft use, and state-owned company account withdrawals. Consequently, government expenditures realized around the same amount (3090 trillion tomans), about 21% above budget law ceiling. Part of these extra expenditures compensated subsidy targeting organization budget deficit; about 38% of public budget deficit resulted from subsidy targeting budget imbalance.

Monitoring Iran’s Real Economy in October 2025: Industry and Mining Sector

Article ID:21140

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21140

A A

Abstract In October 2025, production and sales indices decreased by -0.3% and -1.1%, respectively, compared to the previous year's corresponding month. Compared to the prior month, production and sales indices increased by 8.1% and 2.3%, respectively. In October 2025, the automotive and parts industry production index increased by 0.8%, while its sales index decreased by -11.2% compared to the previous year's corresponding month. Additionally, the chemical industry (excluding pharmaceuticals) production and sales indices decreased by -3.6% and -0.9%, respectively. In October 2025, the monthly price growth rate for listed industrial companies was 2.4%, with year-on-year growth reaching 51.5%, up 5.4 percentage points from the previous month. Notably, the annual average price index for industrial activities rose by 4.1 percentage points to 40.1% compared to the previous month.

Mechanisms for Political Parties' Entry into Legislative and Executive Branches (1): Case Study of Germany

Article ID:21143

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21143

Abstract This report examines institutional and legal mechanisms for political parties' participation in legislative and executive arenas in the Federal Republic of Germany. The main goal is presenting models and practical solutions for strengthening Iran's party system, focusing on institutionalism and law reform approaches. The existence and efficiency of political parties in today's world is an unavoidable necessity for electoral systems' efficiency. However, in Iran, despite supportive upstream laws, political parties' inefficiency is quite evident. Researchers have sought causes of this inefficiency in cultural, historical, and political factors (like government dominance over parties, personality-centeredness, and public distrust). But this report's focus is on policymaking and institutionalization as a key factor that can transform actors' (parties') behavior by changing game rules. This report examines Germany's party system from parties' entry perspective into parliament and government. Parties' position in Germany's Basic Law, considering them people's political will formers, is the foundation of this party system. This position is well designed and implemented by ordinary laws, especially the Political Parties Law and Federal Election Law. The report, while examining establishment, registration, internal organization, state financing, and activity limits of parties, focuses on operational mechanisms of parties' power participation through Germany's mixed (combined) electoral system. Finally, the report argues that Germany's party system success results from specific legal requirements simultaneously supporting political parties and binding and accountable within democratic principles. The introduced model shows how precise, transparent, and supportive law drafting can move parties from political life margins to center, transforming them into efficient and sustainable institutions.

Supervisory Report on Monitoring Iran's Macro Environmental Indicators

Article ID:21141

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21141

M R

Abstract Access to accurate and reliable environmental data is an essential prerequisite for effective management and protection. Lack of these data or their inaccuracy has challenged environmental planning, prioritization, and targeting, leading to unrealistic targeting in approving some environmental laws and executive regulations. Unfortunately, due to reliable data shortage and lack of transparency, verifying international index scores using national data was impossible, creating an unbalanced image of Iran's actions internationally. Therefore, in this report, for the first time nationally, by inquiring from responsible agencies, key existing national indicators were collected, expertly reviewed, and published. Review of 93 presented indicators collected in 3 natural, human, and marine environment domains shows the need for precision, updating, and continuous publication of data, and action to prepare and publish data needed for accurately determining the country's position in international environmental indices.

Evaluation of the Executive Regulation of Paragraph B of Article 76 of the Seventh Five-Year Development Program Law

Article ID:21142

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21142

Abstract Since 2022, allocating 1% of executive agencies' or state-owned companies' current costs to cultural and social activities was forecasted in budget laws. This approach was pursued annually with changes in obligated agencies list or their expenditure domains. In the Seventh Development Program Law, these credits are defined under Paragraph B of Article 76, with collection and allocation methods specified in the relevant executive regulation. Previous regulations had little success in ensuring full credit implementation and increasing effectiveness. Therefore, this report evaluates the success extent of Paragraph B of Article 76 executive regulation in addressing past deficiencies and examining its capacity in law goal realization. Analysis shows this regulation's deficiencies include: 1) Inappropriate timing for credit collection and its negative consequences in law expectations realization; 2) Legal obstacles to credit collection enforcement guarantee in future years; 3) Ambiguity and interpretability of Article 5 note on granting credits to public institutions; 4) Lack of explaining recipient selection processes or overseers in Articles 6 and 7; 5) Insufficient self-declaration for overseeing Article 7 Note 2 on recipients announcing credits from other government contracting parties. Therefore, proposals include: 1) Removing estimated and final words in Article 4 and amending it; 2) Preparing Guideline for Utilizing Public Capacities and Overseer Qualification Instruction by responsible agencies and approving them in Article 6 committees; 3) Establishing a specific system for long-term public capacity utilization; 4) Annually announcing recipient list and their specialized overseers; 5) Amending quantitative performance indicators of responsible agencies' operational programs.

Expert Opinion on: “Bill to Amend the Law on Public Transport Development and Fuel Consumption Management”

Article ID:21144

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21144

Abstract The Bill to Amend the Law on Public Transport Development and Fuel Consumption Management, comprising one article and 13 clauses, was sent to the Islamic Consultative Assembly. After 18 years since the mentioned law approval, preparing a bill for its amendment and alignment with current developments and issues in transport is necessary and positively evaluated. Additionally, considering resources for public transport development from value-added tax and supporting clean fleet and rail transport development are other bill strengths; however, some legal objections and gaps exist in the government bill, for which provisions in the following axes are proposed: 1) Forecasting new resources through vehicle transfer tax and specific tax on imported vehicles for public transport fleet renewal; 2) Providing a new framework for regulating transport service provider platforms; 3) Organizing and strengthening logistics companies focused on third-party (3PL) and higher companies; 4) Forecasting new systems for strengthening oversight and public satisfaction, including national transport and fuel consumption monitoring system and online traffic violation protest system in the law; 5) Applying central amendments to law quantitative targeting tables; 6) Mandating the government to design comprehensive policies for strengthening suburban transport; 7) Issuing energy saving certificates for public transport fleet renewal. In conclusion, approving this bill with mentioned amendments and annexes in this report is proposed.

Lessons Learned from Social Business Worldwide: Evaluating Social Impact and Social Return on Investment

Article ID:21145

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21145

M Z, F S

Abstract Social impact evaluation and social return on investment are key tools for analyzing projects' social, economic, and environmental impacts. Social businesses, governments, and impact investors need transparent methods for measuring their activities' social value. Two main approaches in this domain include social return on investment converting social outcomes to monetary values and social impact measurement including qualitative and quantitative analyses. International evaluations are based on frameworks like (SVI), (GRI), and (IMP). This process includes stakeholder participation, data collection and analysis, social impact valuation, and reporting. Evaluation methods include qualitative tools (interviews and case studies), quantitative tools (cost-benefit analysis and statistical modeling), and combined approaches increasing evaluation accuracy. However, challenges like methodological problems, high costs, inappropriate standardization, and differences in international frameworks exist. For improving Iran's evaluation system, proposals include drafting a national standard framework, establishing an independent non-governmental responsible entity, investing in new technologies, and creating financial incentives for private sector investors, and finally reforming social domain budgeting based on program social impact evaluation. Implementing these actions will lead to increased transparency, accuracy, and social policy efficiency.

Review of Challenges in Repatriating National Cultural-Historical Properties

Article ID:21146

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21146

Abstract Repatriating Iran's cultural-historical properties is an important cultural heritage domain issue. In past decades, relatively significant quantities of stolen or illegally excavated Iranian cultural-historical objects have been returned to Iran through diplomatic cooperation, including with 1970 UNESCO Convention and 1995 UNIDROIT Convention member countries, and through judicial proceedings in origin countries' courts. However, this quantity is not comparable to the vast number of Iranian artifacts in foreign private collections, museums, and scientific-research institutions. This results from some legal challenges and executive action weaknesses in this field, and lack of favorable international rules for repatriating cultural-historical properties exported before and even after Iran's cultural heritage protection laws approval. This report, while examining history and legal challenges and some existing executive deficiencies, offers proposals for addressing legal and executive shortcomings, forming a national working group for Iran's cultural-historical properties repatriation with delegated planning and oversight authorities on repatriation affairs in a single-article approval form. Ministry of Foreign Affairs participation and cooperation in creating alignment and cooperation among ancient civilization countries, forming a global coordinated network to change existing international rules on cultural-historical properties repatriation, and feasibility of amending the 1970 Convention internationally are other report proposals.

Sustainable Legislative Approaches to River Protection Against Pollution Focusing on Successful Global Laws

Article ID:21132

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21132

SH F

Abstract This report comparatively and pathologically analyzes Iran's legal system for river pollution control compared to leading countries' legal frameworks like the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Key findings show a deep gap between Iran's approach and successful global models. While countries like the United States with the Clean Water Act (CWA) and dual management tools (technology-based and water quality-based), Japan with multi-level and flexible governance, and the United Kingdom with integrated and ecosystem-based river basin management (WFD) have achieved remarkable successes, Iran's legal system suffers from multiple structural weaknesses. Most important challenges include scattered and non-comprehensive laws, lack of precise definitions for point and non-point pollution sources, focus on reactive rather than preventive approaches, and lack of deterrence in penalties. This report argues that transitioning from current governance requires fundamental reforms. Finally, a set of policy and legislative solutions is presented, with the main axis drafting a Comprehensive Water Pollution Control Law. This law should integrate new management approaches like Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL), strengthen oversight mechanisms, clarify corporate criminal liability, and institutionalize the polluter pays principle to create sustainable and efficient management for national water resources.

Performance Evaluation of the Seventh Development Program Until the End of September 2025

Article ID:21151

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21151

M A, M A, R B

Abstract Continuous oversight of the Seventh Five-Year Development Program Law implementation, promulgated to executive agencies in July 2024, is highly important given historical gaps between approved goals and practical results in previous programs. Accordingly, legislator attention in the Seventh Program to forming the new Supreme Program Steering Council institution and appointing executive and financial monitors to agencies is a turning point in program law performance oversight and evaluation system. The government submitted the Seventh Program first-year performance report to the Islamic Consultative Assembly at September 2025 end per its legal duty. One-year evaluation of Seventh Program Law implementation shows that despite new institutional and oversight structures creation, planning-execution gap partially persists. 2025 budget non-alignment with program goals and provisions and financial resource shortage, weakness in effective oversight and steering, inadequate monitoring of monitors' reports, approving drafted documents without appropriate qualitative evaluation, and inappropriate annual quantitative goal breakdowns are main challenges that, if continued, can hinder macro program goal achievement. Although the Supreme Steering Council's performance in holding sessions and provision follow-up is acceptable, more focus on continuous agency performance oversight and improving monitors' report quality is necessary. Additionally, preparing six-month supervisory reports by executive and financial monitors, drafting annual programs, strengthening Seventh Program-annual budget connection, and shifting the Supreme Steering Council to its legal duty of continuous agency performance review in program duties compliance and adopting policies aligned with these actions' strengths and weaknesses and coordinating executive agencies' activities can provide grounds for more effective macro Seventh Program goal realization in future years.

A Review of the Concept and Methods of Measuring Core Inflation

Article ID:21147

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21147

F G

Abstract The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key measure for assessing inflation and economic planning. This index examines price changes in a fixed basket of household consumer goods and services. Core inflation, by removing transient price fluctuations, shows the sustainable inflation trend and reveals monetary policy weaknesses. This index also has special importance in inflation reduction policies. Core inflation, by removing price shocks, provides a clear inflation picture. Before crises like COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine war, the excluding food and energy items method was efficient, but after these shocks, trimmed and Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) index methods became more accurate. The International Monetary Fund (2021) recommended the asymmetric trimmed method, but in 2024 introduced the MCT index, now used by the Federal Reserve. This report, by examining core inflation concept and measurement methods, presents evaluation indicators and appropriate method selection for measuring core inflation in the country. In Iran, inflation distribution has right skewness, so asymmetric methods are more suitable. Additionally, currency shocks have transferred imported inflation domestically, creating instability hindering smooth core inflation trend in Iran. This report's findings show that the excluding food and energy items method is most accurate. The median method has also succeeded in inflation forecasting, but trimmed with rent retention performed weaker long-term. The average core inflation measures index provides better balance. Generally, appropriate method selection in Iran requires attention to currency shocks and consumption basket structure.

The Image of the New World Order Based on Emerging Technologies

Article ID:21131

https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.8.21131

saeedeh Moradifar, Alireza Esfehani

Abstract The current international order is defined by the collision of U.S.-China geopolitical competition across physical and technological domains. The core of this technological rivalry centers on leadership in AI, 5G, semiconductors, Quantum computing, and global Internet Governance, shifting focus from states to influential technology giants (e.g., U.S. GAFA/GAMA vs. China’s BHTX). These corporations are actively shaping a new digital order that challenges state sovereignty. This report analyzes the future world and Iranian order based on these technological shifts, projecting three potential outcomes for Iran within the global digital framework. Iran faces the possibility of becoming a passive player in a nationalistic “Tech Cold War” scenario, or, conversely, entering a globalized digital order as an active participant capable of designing international norms and regulations.